Championship 20 March 2021
The Championship clashes with the FA Cup today, although only Bournemouth are left in from this level.
Things continue to look good for Norwich (who play Blackburn). There is only a 3% difference between our likely outcome and bookmakers mean odds (63%-60%), so they should be safe for at least a 1-0 win.
Our model predicts a 1-0 win for Bristol City against Rotherham and gives Bristol a 60% chance of a win. Bookmakers still favour Bristol City but by 20% less than us.
Watford have a 70% chance of winning against Birmingham which is hardly surprising as the form of the teams in the bottom quarter of the table is really quite bad at the moment. Birmingham do have 2 wins in their last 5 games though. Watford have won four in a row now and a 2-0 win is predicted.
Barnsley are in excellent form as well and are also predicted to win 2-0, against Sheffield Wednesday (we give Barnsley a 65% chance of winning).
There are no games where our model outcomes actually differ from the overall bookmakers odds, just differences in the extent. The differences in form at this stage between the bottom half of the league and the top half appear to be decent predictors.