Premier League, Good Friday  2 April 2021

Arsenal v Liverpool

This is 9th v 7th with both teams under-performing this season.

Liverpool have won 90 of the historic match-ups between the two teams with Arsenal winning 81. The two teams haven’t played each other since October when Arsenal won although, that was in the League Cup, so it’s not clear that it’s much of a form guide. Our model has gives the two teams an exact equal chance to win at 36.3% although bookmakers favour Liverpool at 43%.

Most likely score: 1-1

Chelsea v West Brom

A Chelsea win has at least 75% chance of happening according to our model. Bookmakers actually have them at 79% to win. In terms of actual results, our model predicts a 16.7% chance of a 2-0 win (I think this is actually one of the highest most likely score likelihoods we’ve had). A 1-0 home win also has a 16.1% chance of happening. I know some Chelsea fans thought Lampard should have had more time but Chelsea have been far more consistent under Tuchel. They also have the second best defensive performance in the league.

Most likely score: 2-0

Man Utd v Brighton

Man Utd aren’t going to catch Man City now but Brighton need probably two or three more wins to be completely safe from relegation and get away from Newcastle and the bottom three. Our model doesn’t think that’s very likely this week giving them just a 15% chance of an away win, despite the fact they’ve won their last two games. Man Utd also have the second highest expected goals this weekend on 1.82.

Most likely score: 1-0

Newcastle v Tottenham, Fulham v Aston Villa

As with Brighton, Newcastle really need a win and really their best hope is if the Tottenham that lost to Dinamo Zagreb in the Uefa League is what shows up. Our model has Tottenham to win at over 55% though and this is hardly surprising considering how bad Newcastle have been.

Fulham actually have better odds than Brighton or Newcastle of getting a win but only just. We have them at 25% for a win with bookmakers having them at 29% away to Aston Villa, who have clearly struggled without Grealish but he is apparently available so that will probably make it more difficult for Fulham..

Most likely scores – both the relegation threatened teams predicted to lose 1-0.