Championship, Monday 5 April 2021

Middlesbrough v Watford has already kicked off as I type this (there is simply too much football on, so because the Premier League had rolled across three days I hadn’t realised the Championship was in full on two separate days!)

That game looks like a 1-1 draw is predicted in our model, if it is conditional on a win occurring then Watford are predicted to win 1-0. This seems more likely especially if we remove the home advantage that is not necessarily in effect without fans.

After the 12.30 match, Reading v Derby looks interesting, partly because our model actually predicts a Reading win (a 1-0 is 13% most likely score; but a 1-1 is the second most likely at 12.9%). Our prediction is also only 1% different from bookmakers mean odds.

Elsewhere, only one match has a different outcome predicted to bookmakers and even that is actually predicted a draw in our model. This is Luton v Barnsley.

Outside of the last five games where their form is actually quite similar (Barnsley have one more point from 5 than Luton), if we again remove home advantage then you can see why bookmakers would have Barnsley as favourites.

Luton are actually only 0.1% higher on likely winner percentages than Barnsley in our model anyway, hence the likely score from us being 1-1.

Six 1-1 draws are predicted and Six 1-0 home wins.  With the most likely winners overall being Norwich and Brentford.