Championship 9 April 2021
Watford v Reading
Tonight’s game is actually the 120th time the two teams have met. Foolishly I thought “these two won’t have played each other much”. How wrong I was. Looks like a significant chunk, or about a third, of those matches took place between the 1920’s and 1950’s when Reading was in old the Third Division South. Reading have won 45 of the match-ups whereas Watford have won 48.
In terms of form though, Watford are second in the league and have won four of the last five games. Although Reading won their last match, they have only the one win in the last five.
Our model predicts a clear win for Watford with bookmakers very closely agreeing (55% our model; 53% bookmakers mean odds).
Most likely score: 1-0
Derby v Norwich
Our model predicts a Norwich win, which may well push Derby back down the table. A 1-0, 2-1 or 2-0 win for Norwich are all around 10% likely (see Away wins in the table below) with Norwich having a 60%+ chance of winning in our model but only a 53% chance with bookmakers. Norwich have nearly 2 for expected goals with Derby only 1.
Most likely score: 0-1
Wycombe v Luton
Can Wycombe escape relegation? With 10 points from the last five games and 3 wins it’s actually possible especially if others in the relegation spots don’t perform. I suspect their biggest issue is likely to be the amount of games in hand Rotherham have, even if Wycombe do continue their current form.
Our model favours Wycombe at 43% whereas bookmakers actually favour Luton at 42%.
Most likely score: 1-0 home win.
