Premier League 9 April 2021
Man City v Leeds
Tomorrow lunchtime’s game should be interesting. Leeds are one of the teams that if all things go right for them they could damage Man City. I think if City score early on though there is very little chance for Leeds.
Historically the teams have pretty much shared the spoils with City winning 3 more of the games between the two at 45-42 wins.
Man City are on 2.72 for expected goals (so essentially have a good chance of putting at least 2 past Leeds). Our model gives Leeds only a 5% chance of a win.
Most likely score: 2-0
Tottenham v Man Utd
Tottenham are still in 6th place despite pretty much every week there being question marks about either how they are set up to play or how they actually perform.
You would think Man Utd fans would be feeling reasonably confident for this game but our model has the two teams almost even with 37.3% for a Tottenham win and 35.4% for Man Utd. Bookmakers slightly favour Man Utd at 39.5%.
Most likely score: 1-1
Sheffield Utd v Arsenal
This is probably as good a chance for a win against Arsenal that Sheffield United will get.
Arsenal collapsing against Liverpool and then being really poor against Slavia Prague yesterday has meant Arsenal (in 10th) really need to bounce back but they have been so inconsistent this season that you do really wonder if that will happen this weekend.
Our model seems to think so, giving them a 53% chance. Bookmakers even have them on 61% to win. I’m not convinced.
Most likely score: 0-1
