Whilst most of the footballing world is (correctly, in my opinion) getting very cross about a European Super League, English Championship football goes on.
Looking across the table you have an ex-European Cup Winners (Nottingham Forest), and teams that have won the Premier league or old Division One, or won cup finals or appeared in them, such as Blackburn, Derby, Huddersfield, Norwich, Watford, Millwall, Cardiff, Preston, Middlesbrough, Coventry and a few others.
In fact most of the teams here have competed at the top-level at some time or other and plenty in the very recent past have finished in the top half of the Premier League.
I’ve not seen Norwich play this season but am looking forward to watching them next season, and they are hoping to take the Championship title tonight by winning at home to second-placed Watford.
Our model predicts a 1-1 draw, favouring Norwich at 45% for a likely win, with Watford at only 29%. Bookmakers have it closer at 39.6% to 31.7% in terms of winners.
Play-off places look pretty sown up suddenly with only Reading outside with a chance. They are now 4 points adrift from Barnsley. With our model typically under-marking Reading compared to bookmakers, Reading have just over a 25% chance of winning against Luton according to our model with bookmakers giving them much better odds at 40%,
Barnsley on the other hand have fairly consistent odds – 40% for a win in our model, 44% with bookmakers with a 1-1 draw predicted.
Right at the bottom of the table, our model gives the faintest of an escape chance for Wycombe (they’d need to get at least 10 point to have a chance of staying up because their goal difference is so bad). We have them with a 40% chance to win against Bristol City but bookmakers have an almost opposite prediction with Bristol on 38.