English Championship 23 4 21
There is no Friday night game for the Championship this weekend but ten games take place Saturday and two more on Sunday.
Reading are 6 points off the playoffs and really need a win against Swansea to stay in with a chance of catching a Barnsley team that is in pretty decent form (10 points from 5 games).
Reading haven’t won for three matches now but we have it a pretty close game. Not much at all between the two teams on expected goals (1.15/1.08). The very slightly good news for Reading is our model favours them at 37.3% to 33.9%. My first thought was this is just ‘home’ advantage but it’s worth noting that bookmakers favour Reading by an even greater margin at 42.2-28.6%.
The teams have historically won an equal number of the games between each other, 33 (each), with 16 draws. So it seems fair enough that our model has predicted a 1-1 draw as the most likely result (this exact result is 13.3% likely)
Watford have good odds to secure promotion, with 1.86 on expected goals and a 64% chance of a win against Millwall (the highest likely win percentage from our model for the Championship this weekend). Bookmakers remarkably have them exactly only 2 percent lower in terms of odds of likely winner.
Our model has Norwich only drawing with QPR, with bookmakers giving Norwich a 10% better chance of a win than our scorecast does.
At the other end of the table, a draw for Derby may not be enough to survive if Rotherham can win some of their games in hand but both teams have shocking form, Derby losing their last four and Rotherham their last 3.
We have Derby drawing with Preston, which could be enough to save them. Especially if we are right about Barnsley beating Rotherham 1-0. Of course, if they do that would all but kill off Reading’s chances of the playoffs unless they also win.