Premier League 23 4 2021

Scorecasting Economists still haven’t recovered from the announcement of a Super League involving six of the Premier League’s clubs, only for it to be effectively cancelled within about a day of the original statement.

We haven’t altered our model to reflect the fact the rest of the league will probably hate the other six for quite some time though.

Man City, Tottenham, Southampton and Fulham are not playing in the league this weekend because of the League Cup Final between Man City and Tottenham. 

So it looks like Liverpool wins against Newcastle (73% likely our model, 75% bookmakers mean odds), Chelsea have a tough London derby against West Ham (1-1 most likely score) and Arsenal are still not very good (I think they will struggle against Everton tonight) and their fans seem to be pretty upset – possibly more than most but our model thinks they will win tonight against Everton (bookmakers have them 14% less likely to win than we do).

Our model also favours Man Utd to win away to Leeds and is only 0.3% different to the percentage that bookmakers favour them.

Goodness knows what a Mourinho-less Tottenham will be like for the rest of the season, let alone the League Cup Final but I have to say I’m less inclined to be interested (if they were playing Fulham – amusingly our model thinks they would draw).