Premier League 30 April 2021

There is still plenty to play for in the Premier League at the top half of the table this weekend.

Man City haven’t won the league yet but are 10 points clear with 5 games to go.

Our model suggests they should get a clear win away to Crystal Palace. They are showing at over 2 for expected goals and we have them at 69% to win, with bookmakers having them at 71%.

Chelsea’s Champions League quest (assuming they don’t win the tournament anyway) continues and they should do well at home to Fulham. Again we have them on over 2 for expected goals and at 74% to win (bookmakers temper this with only 65.7%).

At the other end of the table West Brom really have to win to stay up (a defeat won’t completely relegate them but it will bring it very very close, especially if Brighton win against Leeds).

We have West Brom drawing 1-1. Our model favours them at 43% whereas bookmakers have them only on 30%, giving an over 40% chance of a Wolves win.

Our model probably favours them because it takes into account home advantage, although West Brom do also have one more point from their last 5 games than Wolves.

If Brighton beat Leeds then it’s all over for West Brom. We have a 1-0 home win as the most likely result (13.5% for a 1-0, with 13.4% chance of a 1-1 draw). Bookmakers favour Brighton at 42.5% with our model only giving Brighton a 39% chance of a win.


**Edit**. Model now includes Man Utd v Liverpool, with a 1-1 predicted but our model favouring Man Utd at 55% to win, with bookmakers only having them on 34.5% to win. If Chelsea do win this takes Liverpool a lot further away from a Champions League spot. There is actually an equal chance of a 1-0 win for Man Utd (11.1%) as there is a 1-1 draw (also 11.1% – in the table below under ‘home wins’ and ‘draws’)

In addition, includes Newcastle v Arsenal, with again a 1-1 predicted but favouring Arsenal at 46.4% to win, with bookmakers having a very close 46.9% win likelihood for Arsenal too.