Premier League 7 May 2021
It’s the final week of the Championship in England but somewhat of a bumper Premier League week too, with a host of midweek fixtures in addition to the weekend games.
The majority of the weekend games are included in our model below (at the time of writing it hasn’t updated for the UEFA league teams).
A draw for Newcastle tonight away to Leicester would see them clear of relegation, if Burnley can beat Fulham.
However, we have Newcastle getting soundly beaten 2-0 away to Leicester and Burnley drawing with Fulham. In some ways, all this would do is prolong the agony for both teams as Fulham would still be 8 points behind Newcastle with 3 games to go. Bookmakers have Leicester on exactly the same odds to win as our model at 66.6%, so it doesn’t look good for Newcastle but they do have a big enough points cushion to survive.
Fulham have a 35% chance of winning against Burnley, whereas Newcastle have less than half that tonight (13.5%). Leicester are of course 3rd in the table so again it really doesn’t look for Newcastle but it also doesn’t look to be enough to keep Fulham up.
Elsewhere our model stands up pretty well. Wolves v Brighton has some differences, with bookmakers favouring Brighton (42%) to win and our model favouring Wolves (46%).
Our model favours Man City against Chelsea (57% to 17%) but bookmakers have City on less than 50% in what is a rehearsal for the Champions League Final. Our model also under values Everton slightly against West Ham at only 24.5% whereas bookmakers have them on 31.1% – although our model has a 1-1 as the most likely score.
**Edit** 8 May 2021
Model has now updated to included Thursday night’s Uefa League Semi-Finals, so includes Man Utd and Arsenal games. Arsenal are overwhelming favourites to beat West Brom (Our model is almost identical to bookmakers mean odds). Man Utd are most likely to draw away to Villa. However, if there is a win, it is most likely to be a 2-1 away win. Again our likely winner odds, as with the Arsenal game are very close to bookmakers odds.