Premier League midweek 11-12 May 2021

Relegation to the Championship is now confirmed for Fulham, West Brom and Sheffield United so the main things to fight for are European places, although technically Man Utd could still win the league.

If they win tonight they are seven points off of Man City, who would have to lose all three games or lose two and draw one, with Man Utd winning all three.

Man Utd v Leicester

This is the first game of the midweek games this week. It’s 2nd v 4th so should be pretty close. We have Man Utd as clear favourites with over 2 on expected goals, at nearly 69% as likely winners (Leicester on just 13%) and a 2-0 home win as the most likely score.

Bookmakers radically disagree and have Leicester as more likely winners than United at 38.2% to win and Utd on only 33.5%. (Having now seen the line ups and Utd switching out 10 players, bookmakers mean odds look a lot more likely)

Southampton v Crystal Palace

We have this as a 1-1 draw but favour Southampton at 43% compared to bookmakers who have them on 48%.

Chelsea v Arsenal

The way Chelsea have been playing recently you’d think they will win this. The team was rotated somewhat at the weekend so may be again for this match. Arsenal also had some changes from their Uefa League Semi-Final defeat at the weekend, so it’s quite likely that both teams look a bit different again to what they did.

Compared to the Utd v Leicester match what is actually fairly amazing is we have Chelsea on almost exactly the same odds as bookmakers do to win (55.6% to 55.2%). Both our model and bookmakers give Arsenal give exactly the same likelihood to win – 19.2%.

There are also games taking place on Thursday, in particular Man Utd v Liverpool but our model won’t update for that until Man Utd have played tonight.