Premier League Mid-Week 18-19 May 2021
There are only European places now to play for in the Premier League (and whatever increase or decrease in prize money you get for finishing one or two places higher or lower in the table).
We have a full set of games though crammed into two days in midweek, with another full set of final matches playing out on Sunday.
One of the curious things is that as the table narrows and we have a full set of results to measure across the whole season, football becomes sort of a bit more predictable (apart from the odd shock). There is only one game where our predicted most likely outcome differs from bookmakers mean odds – that is Southampton v Leeds, where our model favours Southampton at 39% whereas bookmakers actually favour Leeds by almost the exact same amount.
Apart from that, there is one game where there is a significant difference in the extent of the odds that might effect the overall outcome:
For the West Brom v West Ham game we slightly favour West Ham at 40% to win, with West Brom on 34%. Bookmakers have West Ham on almost 20% higher odds at 59% to win.
Both teams are also pretty close on expected goals at 1.25 (West Brom) to 1.38 for West Ham. Our model predicts a 1-1 draw as the most likely score but if there is a win it’s more likely to be West Ham (see Score Picks, Most & Conditional).
Elsewhere, Man City are on close to 3 expected goals against Fulham, with a 79% chance of winning.
The repeat of the FA Cup final has Chelsea winning 1-0 and getting some consolation against Leicester.
Our model has Liverpool winning 1-0 away to Burnley but only giving them a 62% chance to win compared to bookmakers who think Liverpool will walk it at 76.5%. This would give Liverpool a last day of the season chance to get in the Champions League.