Premier League – last day of the season

Premier League – last day of the season

Today is the final day of the Premier League season.

We end the season with some almost exact odds as bookmakers in our model’s predictions:

Liverpool v Crystal Palace – both our model and bookmakers have Liverpool on over 80% to win. Liverpool have really picked up in the last few weeks and after 4 wins in a row are actually back in 4th. Their goal difference is pretty close to Leicester’s (+4) but Leicester have a tougher match against Tottenham (they are still favoured in our model but only at 43.6% – with bookmakers having them on 48.4% to win).

There isn’t much to play for in the Leeds v West Brom game but our model has them at 66.6% to win, with bookmakers having only 0.3% difference in their mean odds. So a Leeds 2-0 win seems a reasonable prediction.

Man Utd don’t look so good against Wolves, where our model has them at just under 50% to win but bookmakers actually have Wolves edging it on 41%. This sounds like bookmakers are taking into account Utd’s UEFA League final in midweek.

In our model, Chelsea are favourites against Villa at 52% whereas bookmakers gave them on 65% to win.

West Ham are favourites against Southampton and again our model has their likely win at pretty close odds to bookmakers – 53.7% to 55.4.

So if our predictions come right, West Ham will finish 6th; if Liverpool win by more than Leicester then they will claim a Champions League spot but in 7th, a Tottenham draw, Everton defeat to Man City, could lead to Arsenal sneaking in on the last day – they are predicted to win 2-0.