The Championship still looks pretty close this week and will do until we have a few more wins in place.

Our model slightly favours two away teams (Preston away to Reading, and Derby away to Peterborough) other than that we’ve predicted a 1-1 draw as the most likely score for all games (there were actually 5 1-1 draws last week!).

Compared to bookmakers mean odds, we favour West Brom at home to Luton but they have West Brom at 55% compared to our 41.6% (our model also includes home advantage, otherwise there would be less difference between West Brom and Luton).


The table below shows our expected goals, which team we favour (Outcome Probs), Most likely score, the odds of each exact score in each game and bookmaker mean odds.

There is a big difference in the odds of a Huddersfield or Fulham win, for instance, where bookmakers mean odds show Fulham at 50% likely to win, whereas we have them only only 31.7%. This may be still affected by ELO ratings and immediate past results, although Huddersfield’s won’t have been great, Fulham were obviously relegated last season from the Premier League.

The two teams with the highest expected goals in our model, Hull City (who scored 4 last week) and Blackburn (2) both won, and are on 1.5 expected goals. Both are favoured by our model at 43.4% and 42.8% to win. Neither team are favoured by bookmakers though so these will be a couple of games to watch out for.