Premier League Week 2


The weekend starts with with Liverpool and Burnley in the lunchtime kick-off. Liverpool got off to a good start last week against Norwich so this could quite a one-sided game. It’s only been a week but already our scorecasts are giving some clear predictions. Our model thinks Liverpool are likely to win (surprise!) at 73% (see table below). 2-0 is the most likely score (at 12.3% likely).

The Man City v Norwich game also comes in at 2-0 as the most likely score (assuming Man City can manage to score at all…). Man City are over 80% likely to win. Bookmaker mean odds have them at a massive 87% to win. Giving Norwich less than 4% (a 1-0 Norwich win is at 2.1% likely in our most likely scores).


Other results are fairly predictable but in a different way.

As both Brighton and Watford will be looking for 3 points against each other you’d think a draw was quite likely (our model naturally predicts a 1-1 draw but favours Brighton, as do bookmakers).

Similarly, if you are a Crystal Palace or Brentford fan you’d be hoping for a win but this match looks incredibly close at 38%-35% in our model or 37%-33 with bookmakers mean odds.

On Sunday Arsenal are at home to Chelsea. It’ll be interesting to see if any of the new signings make much difference for either side. It’s hard to see past a Chelsea win, after Arsenal’s start to the season last week. Both teams are remarkably at 1.22 on expected goals in our model though. This is because although it factors in ELO ratings and past results, it also gives home advantage. In our ‘Outcome Probs’ indicating the most likely winner, each team is on exactly 36.3%. Bookmakers of course have Chelsea on 54% to win.