English Championship End of August
Derby v Nottingham Forest:
The ‘East Midlands’ or ‘Clough’ derby is one of two games that start off the weekend’s Championship fixtures.
Our model predicts a draw but Forest have had a terrible start to the season losing all four games, so even Derby who have been struggling as well, should fancy their chances with home advantage.
Our model favours Derby at 42% to 31.5% for Forest, with bookmakers ‘Mean Odds’ (see table below) having the teams a lot closer with just over 4% between the two on likely winners (36.4% – 32%). It sounds like it could be close.
Most likely score: 1-1
Cardiff City v Bristol City
The other early kick-off is the ‘Severnside Derby’ and that look much less even than the other early game. We favour Cardiff at just under 60% to win, with bookmakers at 48% but still only giving Bristol a 24% chance.
Most likely score: 1-0
In the 3pm games, our model gives a 1-1 draw for Preston against West Brom, whilst still heavily favouring West Brom at 45% (this is 10% less than bookmakers though).
We favour Huddersfield over Reading, but only by 2% (bookmakers have an 8% difference between the sides).
Top of the table Fulham will fancy a win against Stoke (we have them at 56% to win, bookmakers mean odds at 50.5%).