Premier League Week 3


Man City v Arsenal

The first match this weekend is Man City v Arsenal and although our model has been somewhat kind to Arsenal in the first two weeks it now shows no mercy. City are on at least 2 ‘expected goals’ and at 68% to win. Bookmakers ‘Mean odds’ are even more confident than that, putting them at over 76% to win and Arsenal on just 8% and it really doesn’t feel like Arsenal are equipped to withstand City but let’s see.

Most likely score: 2-0

West Ham v Crystal Palace

The other game with a similar odds margin for us is West Ham v Crystal Palace. West Ham are somewhat provisionally top of the league after two games, with Palace only managing one point from their first two. We have West Ham with a 2-0 home win as the most likely score. We are even closer to bookmakers Mean Odds with this prediction (just 3.2%).

Most likely score: 2-0

Other games

Elsewhere in the league, we favour Man Utd slightly less than bookmakers (which is possibly because Wolves get home advantage. Personally can’t see Wolves drawing with Man Utd, although in our model it is the most likely score (1-1) at 12.4%). We also have a Brighton win against Everton at exactly the same odds (39.9%) but a 1-1 as most likely score. Tottenham look likely to beat Watford and are close to 2 on expected goals (I’d expect that to go up in the next few weeks as Kane starts scoring), again not much between our model and bookmakers on the likely outcome.

Liverpool v Chelsea

We also favour Liverpool more heavily than bookmakers do in the Liverpool v Chelsea game although it does feel like a 1-1 in that game is the most likely outcome. It does feel pretty likely that both teams will score.

Most likely score: 1-1