Championship 14-15 September 2021
Top of the table
League leaders West Brom look set to pile the misery on for Derby tonight, with a 61% chance to win in our scorecasting model (See table below).
Bookmakers mean odds have them at 63.5% to win so only just over 2% difference between us. West Brom have the highest ‘expected goals’ total this week. This is the only match where a 1-0 win is the most likely exact scoreline in our model.
A 1-0 exact score is 11.6% likely in our model with a 2-0 win at 11%.
The other unbeatens
Bournemouth are home to QPR.
Apart from West Brom, these are the only two teams still unbeaten in the league after six games.
We have this one as a draw but heavily favour the home team, Bournemouth. Bookmakers agree but have 5.4% more confidence that Bournemouth will win.
Reading v Peterborough
At the other end of the table, Reading have slipped into the bottom three of the table.
If most recent past results between the two teams were everything to go by then tonight’s home game against Peterborough may be a bit tricky.
Just over eight years ago, Reading lost away to Peterborough 6-0 the last time the two teams matched up.
If current form is anything to go by then the two teams will draw but if they do it will be a score draw because Reading aren’t lacking goals, only five teams have scored more than them so far. Sadly for Reading though they have also let in more goals than anyone else in the league. The expected goals factor is somewhat reflected in our model though with Reading on 1.63 expected goals to Peterborough’s 1.19. We favour Reading at 47.5% to win with bookmakers less confident on 43%.