Premier League 17 September 2021


The Premier League kicks off at 8pm tonight with Newcastle v Leeds.

Amazingly, we have the two teams on the exact same odds 37.1% in our model, with bookmakers slightly favouring Newcastle at 41.3%. An exact score of 1-1 is 12.2% likely according to our model (see table below in Draws).

Two other fixtures particularly, jump out from the table – namely Liverpool v Palace and Man City v Southampton.

We have both teams winning 2-0, with each at least 70% likely to occur (well a home win is, that exact score for either team is 12.9% and 11.3% likely, respectively).

Top of the league Man Utd and second placed Chelsea, on the other hand, appear to have it much tougher. United are away to West Ham (who may struggle without Antonio), where we have a 1-1 as the most likely score – bookmakers however favour Man Utd at 54% (compared to our 35.7). In Chelsea’s game we favour them at Tottenham by 41.5% but bookmakers have them on 55%. Be interesting to see who is right.

I suspect that our model favours the home team too much in these particular instances but that is largely because our model doesn’t take into account individual player likely absences such as Son for Tottenham in addition to West Ham minus Antonio who is suspended.