Championship 18 September 2021

The first thing that sticks out from the Championship fixtures for the weekend is that in our model, we have Fulham beating Reading 2-0 at home (see table below – Outcome Probs).

We have a likely  Fulham win at 65%,  with bookmakers making this seem pretty likely at 69%. So it doesn’t look great for Reading who at least managed a win against Peterborough in midweek. Reading’s problem is Fulham also managed to win 4-1 against Birmingham and are still top. Both teams are high scorers at the moment, trouble is Reading also have the joint worst defence in the league, along with Peterborough.

Elsewhere, things look quite good for QPR and Huddersfield, with both teams on at least 50% to win with our model. Bookmakers agree with us that they are favoured in terms of percentage to win (about 5% less per match by bookmakers mean odds) but our model still has both teams drawing 1-1.

A 1-1 draw being the most likely result across the league simply reflects the closeness of the Championship, and that is what our model has predicted. Derby v Stoke for instance is 13% likely to be an exact 1-1 draw, the most likely exact score of the week.

There are also a number of games where the team we favour, differs from bookmakers, which again highlights how close the league is. One big difference is in the Barnsley v Blackburn game where our model has home team, Barnsley at almost 50% to win. Bookmakers have just 3% between the teams with Blackburn leading at 36%