Championship  28 September 2021


Derby v Reading

Two teams that have been in the news for all the wrong reasons lately play each other Wednesday, Derby who have already been deducted 12 points and Reading who are also facing that possibility.

So far this season, their fates have also been fairly different. Although, both got off to a bad enough start, with Derby have fared worse and have already had their points deducted. Reading started badly but have now picked up and have won their last three games. Putting it bluntly Derby can’t score but also don’t let many in (scored 6, against 8) and bizarrely have a defence that would put them in the play-offs, if that was the measure.

Reading are the opposite. They are joint 3rd with a number of teams, on goals scored (16) but have the second worst defence in the league.

Our model (See table below in Score Picks) has rather boringly predicted a 1-1 draw as the most likely score. Our model favours Derby by just under 3% as likely winners, with bookmakers giving a more generous difference between the teams at over 11%. Despite Derby’s defensive record this does feel like a game where both teams will probably score.

Most likely score: 1-1

Cardiff v West Brom

There aren’t many games this midweek where there are vast differences between our likely predicted winners and teams that are favoured through bookmakers mean odds (see table above).

That said this game between Cardiff and West Brom has quite a difference in odds. We include home advantage in our model, which may help to explain why Cardiff are marginally favoured in this game by 2.6%, whereas bookmakers have Cardiff at only 24% to win, with West Brom on 48.5% (West Brom are unbeaten this season apart from a 6-0 defeat to Arsenal in the League Cup).

The last time the two teams played Cardiff won 2-1 but in the same season West Brom also won their home game 4-2.

Most likely score: 1-1 (13% likely according to our model as the exact score, the highest for any exact score prediction this week).