Championship 1 October 2021
Stoke City v West Bromwich Albion
This game kicks off the Championship weekend. Home team Stoke are 5th but West Brom are joint 1st with Bournemouth both teams at the top, undefeated, having won 6 and drawn 4. These two teams have been playing each other for a very long time, the first time in 1888 with West Brom winning an FA Cup match 4-1
Stoke on the other hand have won 62 times to West Brom’s 49, one of these being the last time the two teams met in January 2020. We have both teams on the same expected goals (see table below). And there is 0.1% difference in the likely winner with teams on 36.7%/36.6% in our model in terms of expected winners. However, bookmakers mean odds (in the table below) favour West Brom at 42.8%.
Most likely score according to our model: 1-1
Elsewhere in the league, on Saturday it is the Championship, so this week our model predicts a 1-1 draw for every game as the most likely score! That said it also favours the home team in every game except Coventry v Fulham and Derby v Swansea.
Cardiff v Reading
Cardiff have lost their last four games, whereas Reading were on a 3 match winning streak, that was ended by Derby in mid-week, so both teams will be trying to reverse defeats. Our model favours Cardiff at 45.4% and Reading on just 29%. Bookmakers pretty much agree within 1-3%.