Premier League 2 10 2021
Man Utd v Everton
Man Utd and Everton kick off the weekend games.
It’s only six games in but Everton under Benitez have performed pretty well and above expectations. They are fifth. Man Utd are fourth. The two teams are both on 13 points having each lost one game.
Man Utd have home advantage and with this factored in and the fact they have a higher ELO rating. The two teams have played each other 206 times with Utd winning 90 to Everton’s 70 wins. With all this taken into account, we have Man Utd winning 1-0, although Everton’s expected goals is at 0.99 just 0.1 shy of ‘1’ that would take them into a likely 1-1. The most likely exact score is at 11.4% likely (1-0) with a 1-1 draw at 11.3%. We favour Utd at 54.9% with bookmakers having a Utd win at 64%.
*Although having just noticed at 11.30am that Man Utd are starting without Ronaldo and Pogba, I do wonder if this now gives Everton a decent chance to win.
Most likely score: 1-0
Liverpool v Man City
Pre-season, most pundits seemed to fancy either Chelsea or Man City to win the league.
Liverpool are currently the only unbeaten team, one point ahead of the rest of the top six. This is going to be a close game in terms of determining a winner but should see some goals. It is also the only game across the league this weekend where there is more than a 10% difference in the likely outcomes from our scorecasts and bookmakers mean odds.
That Liverpool have Trent Alexander-Arnold injured and that may have some impact, especially against such a good City side. Individual player absences or selection isn’t included in our model.
This game is closer than Man Utd v Everton in terms of odds, in both our model and bookmakers. We favour Liverpool at 44%. The most likely score is 1-1 but conditional on a win happening then 2-1 is most likely. Bookmakers favour Man City at 39%.
Most likely score: 1-1