Premier League Mid-October 2021

Leicester v Man Utd

Leicester have not had a great time in their last four games in the league, drawing the last two and losing two before that. They have home advantage against a United team that has lost then drawn in their last two games.

Our model favours Leicester at 41% (bookmakers disagree having Utd on 45%) to win.  We don’t take into account player status but if we did, we’d probably consider that Utd could be playing with a second-string defence if both Maguire and Varane are injured. It’s also going to be a test of whom Solskjaer picks as his forwards as their have been accusations that rotation has cost them recently.

Most likely score : 1-1

Norwich v Brentford

The two promoted teams here have had wildly different fortunes. Brentford have probably surprised most people by being in 7th, whereas Norwich managed their first point in their last game. Norwich have home advantage and our model slightly favours them at 40%.

This is one of three games where there is either a difference in outcomes in our model and bookmakers mean odds or a sizeable difference in the confidence levels. Here bookmakers favour Brentford at 45%, so this is a decent test for our model.

Most likely score 1-1

Watford v Liverpool

Our model gives Watford over 22% to win this which seems unlikely as Liverpool are hardly struggling. If there is a win then our model gives Liverpool a 55% chance of winning with a 2-1 away win the most likely winning score. Watford have just over 1 on expected goals with Liverpool approaching but not quite at 2. Bookmakers have Liverpool at 70% to win though.

Most likely score 1-1

Elsewhere, Burnley are given next to no chance against Man City (7% our model, 4.4% bookmakers mean odds). Also both our model and bookmakers agree on Arsenal winning against Palace (58% (with 0.2% between our Arsenal likely win and bookmakers mean odds).