Premier League 22 10 21

Of the games I’ll be looking out for this weekend, I think they’ll probably be Man Utd v Liverpool – can Utd’s defence stand up to Salah, Mane and Firmino? And does Solskjaer have it in him to outwit Liverpool and get the best out of the attacking part of his side?

In terms of upsets, Brentford v Leicester looks interesting. Leicester had an exciting mid-week in Europe, winning 4-3 against Spartak and Daka scoring 4 goals. They have also had some patchy league form (despite winning last weekend) with Brentford outperforming everyone’s expectations.

Also for nostalgia reasons, Everton v Watford is one I’ll be interested in largely because it was the first full F.A. Cup final I actually watched (I watched the Man Utd v Brighton replay, the year before, when they still had those). I’ve covered all of these games below the table.

Man Utd v Liverpool

This is one of those matches where our model stands up to bookmakers mean odds. We have Utd on 33% to win, they have them on 32% – we have Liverpool to win at 42% with bookmakers mean odds they have 0.7% less. All in all this suggests a very close game. Liverpool edge it on expected goals being 0.2 (so 1/5 of a goal more!) higher.

Most likely score: 1-1 (exact score 11.5% likely according to our model). – Personally I think Liverpool will win.

Brentford v Leicester City

Brentford have had a great start to the season and although Leicester managed to win in the Uefa League and a win last weekend, their form has been a bit patchy. This is reflected in our model. Home advantage probably gives Brentford an edge at just under 41% to win. They also are 0.14 higher on expected goals. Bookmakers slightly disagree with us with their mean odds as they have almost nothing at all between the two teams (0.2%!)

Most likely score: 1-1

Everton v Watford

The likely outcomes in this game are much clearer. Watford have a new manager but looked utterly hopeless last week against Liverpool. Although it was a very much in form Liverpool. Everton are clearly not Liverpool but are 8th and have only lost two games all season compared to Watford’s five. Everton are very close to 2 expected goals and this is reflected in our exact scores section (Home wins with 11.4% for 2-0 as the most likely score and 11.7% for 1-0). We have Everton at 63% to win.

Most likely score: 1-0