Championship 6 November 2021

Peterborough v Fulham

This is the first game to catch my eye this evening. It has the highest odds in our model for a likely winner and also is the only game with a 2-1 away win as the most likely score. This is in part down to Fulham’s amazing scoring record so far this season. They won 7-0 in mid-week and have 43 goals so far this season, 16 more than anyone else. Peterborough have the worst defensive record in the league, letting in 31 goals so far so this doesn’t look at all good for them. A 2-1 away exact score is 9.9% likely.

We have them at a 63.7% chance of winning with bookmakers mean odds just over 1% less than that. If Fulham can maintain this form and momentum you’d have to expect them to return to the Premier League.

Compared to earlier in the season, the differences in our odds for likely winners and losers are now generally closer to bookmakers mean odds. The differences are more often than not in the percentage confidence for a winning team rather than a completely different outcome showing. There is just 5% between our model and bookmakers for West Brom to win and 8% for Barnsley at home to Hull for instance.

Blackpool v QPR

Blackpool v QPR is one game where there is an actual difference in the team favoured but still by only 8% difference. We favour Blackpool at 41.5% with bookmakers on 33.2%, whereas we have QPR at 32% and their mean odds show 38.5%.