Premier League football returns tonight after the midweek European matches.
Southampton v Aston Villa
Southampton play Aston Villa on Friday night and neither team has gotten off to a great start to the season. Villa have lost their last four games, whilst Southampton’s form has taken a turn in the opposite direction with two wins and draw in the last three. Our model has this as a 1-1 draw and favours Southampton, with bookmakers mean odds only just over 1% higher than our 45% confidence.
Chelsea v Burnley
Chelsea are very likely to win this (78% in our model). Again there is only just over 1% between our favoured winner and bookmakers mean odds. The most likely score here is 2-0 to Chelsea. Chelsea have won their last 4 league games with Burnley managing just one in the league all season, although that was their last match.
Everton v Tottenham
One game where there is a difference between our model and bookmakers mean odds is this match. We favour Everton at 46% (and with over 1.5 expected goals).
Everton have actually lost one more game in a row than Tottenham recently, have scored 7 more goals over the season so far and are at home. Bookmakers slightly favour Tottenham (and probably rightly so). This may well be for factors that our model doesn’t currently take into account – like a manager change.
Tottenham were somewhat fortunate yesterday against Vitesse Arnhem, with 3 sending’s off in the game but with new manager Conte’s first Premier League game, it does seem reasonable to expect some changes to Tottenham’s form in the coming weeks. Our model predicts a 1-1 draw.
Man Utd v Man City
Man Utd managed a win last weekend but prior to that were beginning to fall away in the title race. Our model favours Man City at 47% with bookmakers more confident with their mean odds at 56%. Can Ronaldo rescue Man Utd, yet again, with Varane out Man Utd’s defence will potentially be a bit shaky? We have a 1-1 draw as the most likely result but conditional on a win occurring we have Man City winning 2-1 away.