English Championship 19 November 2021
Championship football returns after what feels like quite a long international break.
QPR v Luton
QPR are 6th so are currently in the play-off positions. Luton are 11th but only 2 points behind QPR. We have this game with 1-1 as the most likely score but both our model and bookmakers mean odds favour QPR (see table below).
In terms of exact scores a 1-1 draw is 12.5% likely but a 1-0 home win is 12.2% likely according to our model, clearly showing how close it is between a draw and a home win.
Elsewhere in the league, Reading‘s point deduction takes them perilously close to the relegation places so a win against Nottingham Forest might help. With our model it is a similar tale to the QPR v Luton game in terms of odds, and most likely scores.
It is however, one of the matches where our predictions do not match bookmakers mean odds, with bookmakers favouring Forest instead of Reading, by nearly 40%.
Derby have also had additional points deducted and their misery is quite likely to be added to, as they play top of the table Bournemouth. With home advantage factored into the model, it gives Derby 22.5% to win, with them just creeping into 1 on expected goals. The most likely score however is still a 0-1 away win for Bournemouth. Bookmakers mean odds for Bournemouth winning have just 0.2% between them and our model’s predicted likely winner.
Fulham v Barnsley has Fulham winning 2-0 and there is under 2% between our model and bookmakers mean odds in terms of how likely this is – we have Fulham at 72.8% to win, with bookmakers on 74. This level of certainty has really not happened much in Championship games so far this season. Fulham are also on just below 2.5 expected goals. The way Fulham are outscoring everyone, if they can maintain that you’d surely expect them to be promoted.