Premier League and English Championship (28-30 December)

Premier League

Publishing this a day late but it does give me a chance to compare yesterday’s results to our model. In terms of outcomes, we predicted the right outcome (correct teams winning or teams drawing) in 3 of the 4 games taking place yesterday, with Leicester v Liverpool the exception.

Although our model did have that as a draw, rather than a Liverpool win, unlike bookmakers mean odds which had a 69% chance for a Liverpool win (about the same amount of possession Liverpool had too).

Not much to say about today’s games though, as it feels like no surprises are particularly likely. In fact bookmakers mean odds (see table below) have Man City at over 80% to win (we have over 10% less confidence but at over 70% I’m not sure it makes much difference). We also don’t have a prediction for Man Utd v Burnley, probably because Man Utd played on Monday night so the model hasn’t corrected for that yet.


Again, a number of Championship games are not taking place due to Covid and teams being unable to field enough players. It’s also thrown out slightly our ability to refresh immediate past results, hence some blanks in the data below.

Of the games taking place, the most interesting is probably Blackburn v Barnsley as Blackburn just keep winning and are 3rd in the league. Barnsley, who made the playoffs last season are now looking in very serious danger of being relegated as have only 14 points from 23 games. Our model has only 1 percent difference in confidence between that and bookmakers mean odds, for a Blackburn win.