Premier League 14 January – 16 January 2022
Tonight’s game is Brighton v Crystal Palace but for some reason our model hasn’t picked it up this week. That said, there are plenty of other games on:
Man City v Chelsea
Saturday’s early kick off is between the league leaders and second placed. Chelsea have drawn 4 of their last 5 league games whilst City have won all theirs so on form and with home advantage you might expect a City win. Man City are favourites and have nearly two on expected goals. City are pretty heavy favourites and our model matches up to Bookmakers Mean Odds in terms of the likely outcome (just 4 percent difference, see table above).
Aston Villa v Man Utd
This game looks interesting not least because Villa have acquired both Digne and Coutinho so there is the question of how well they are integrated into the team. Villa have lost their last two games and Man Utd their last match but are still 7th compared to Villa’s 14th. We have this as a 1-1 draw and teams form is probably reflected in that. The exact score is also 12.8% likely.
Tottenham v Arsenal
Tottenham v Arsenal in the North London derby looks very close but the difference is, the likely winners of this according to our model are Arsenal at 40.7% but bookmakers favour Tottenham at 41.4%. There really isn’t much between the teams as they are 6th and 5th.