The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 17 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds. Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects…Read More >

The forecasts of this weekend’s fixtures throw up some curious comparisons between the Model and those implied by the average of online bookmaker odds. These potentially suggest behavioural biases in…Read More >

There is a midweek round of Premier League fixtures this week, Tuesday to Thursday (bizarrely). Most notable perhaps is the Wednesday evening Merseyside Derby at Anfield. Some bookmakers are now…Read More >

As always, the Scorecasting Model provides some notable differences in forecasts when compared against those suggested by bookmaker odds. In some cases, the win %s almost match perfectly, such as…Read More >

Mourinho may be coming to this season’s Premier League party late, but he still has two thirds of the season left to make his mark. Nobody doubts that he will…Read More >

Have Leicester replaced Manchester Utd in the Premier League’s “top 6” sides? The Foxes certainly get value for money, compared with the distinct lack of value in the League’s most…Read More >

Halloween may be past us, but that won’t make this weekend any less scary for Southampton fans. After conceding 9 at home last time out, they travel to Manchester City…Read More >

Statistically, the Model factors in a significant negative effect on a team’s performance of having played both recently, i.e. midweek, especially in Europe and away from home. Therefore, we are…Read More >

Last round of fixtures, we bemoaned the noncompetitive state of top-flight English football, because the Model had only given Wolves a 5% chance of a win at Man City. Well……Read More >

The Model gives Wolves just a 5.4% chance of beating Man City away this weekend. The bookies are even more pessimistic about their chances, suggesting only a 4.5% chance that…Read More >