Oxford United are all of a sudden in a Man City-esque run of form. In five matches they’ve scored 16 goals and conceded none, only dropping two points.
Can they carry on their barnstorming run at Accrington? RED thinks they have a 45.4 chance, slightly more than the bookmakers at 42%. It may not be quite so high scoring this week; a 2-0 win is at 7.5%.
It’s another weekend of football all across Europe, which has already begun in France and Germany. RED has posted its forecasts. Bundesliga, La Liga, Ligue 1 and Serie A.
Reflecting the lack of balance in the Premier League, Bayern Munich’s visitors Hoffenheim have just a 6.2% chance of winning according to RED, 4.3% according to the bookmakers. In Ligue 1, the bookies give PSG’s visitors Angers just a 6.9% chance, although RED gives them a 27.1% chance.
Reading lie just above the relegation zone. So unsurprisingly the Model makes them underdogs away to Bristol City, with just a 21% chance of a win, and expected to score only 0.93 goals, compared with 1.67 for Bristol. The most likely outcome in this match is 1-0 (10.3%).
The Model gives Wolves just a 5.4% chance of beating Man City away this weekend. The bookies are even more pessimistic about their chances, suggesting only a 4.5% chance that Wolves will overcome the Champions. Such uncompetitive fixtures were rare before the Premier League and the sheikhs arrived. There are lessons throughout sporting history whereby a lack of competitive balance destroyed the popularity of sports. Fans want to see a contest. Anyway… [Good luck to Wolves in making the Model and the Bookies look silly!]
The model likes 1-1. In 11 of the 12 matches on Tuesday and Wednesday night the Model predicts 1-1 is the most likely outcome. Only in the bottom-of-the-table clash between Stoke and Huddersfield does the Model see a significant point of difference, with Stoke forecast to beat Huddersfield, with 1.6 goals expected for the home side but less than 1 for the Terriers. In this particular fixture, the Model provides a similar forecast to the average among bookmaker odds, with the former forecasting a 51% chance of a Stoke win and the latter 53%.
Brunton Park is not a happy hunting ground for Oldham. One win in six visits going back to January 2011, and last year’s 6-0 Boxing Day hammering that saw the end of Frank Bunn’s tenure at Boundary Park. Carlisle are only a point and two positions better off than Oldham, and indeed Oldham retain a higher Elo rating than Carlisle. But RED and the bookmakers are agreed that Carlisle are favourites on Saturday – RED puts their chances of winning at 44%, the bookmakers at 41%. A 1-1 draw is most likely (12.6%), followed by a 1-0 home win (11.5%) and a 1-0 away win (9%).
League Two sees perhaps the most even match imaginable. Scunthorpe entertain Bradford, with both teams expected to score 1.27 goals. Each team has a 36.3% chance of winning, according to RED, and even the bookmakers agree, favouring Scunthorpe by 0.3%, 36.3% to 36%. Needless to say, 1-1 is the most likely scoreline – 12.7%.
Bolton very nearly caused a significant upset, denied in the closing seconds against Sunderland last weekend. Have they turned the corner? The bookmakers don’t think so, giving them just a 9.5% chance at Portsmouth. RED isn’t much more hopeful, either, giving them just 15% to win. A 2-0 win for Pompey is most likely (11.4%).
Drama at Derby. It sounds like something out of “Dream Team” (really miss that show – soap opera and football combined, why did Harchester Utd have to end?) Mass drink-driving offences and the captain’s leg getting smashed don’t feature as variables in the Scorecasting Model. So perhaps Derby’s expected goals forecast this weekend of 1.4 at home to Birmingham is a little ambitious. Nonetheless, the Model and bookmaker implied forecasts of a Derby win are similar, at 45% and 43%, respectively.