Scorecasting Economists

Championship, R35 (25-26 Feb, 2020) — Luton aren’t relegated yet, and they have a 27% chance of beating Brentford on Tuesday evening.

The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 35 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Champs forecasts R35 2020, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Premier League, R27 (22-24 Feb) — Econometric Model gives Chelsea 42% chance of beating Spurs

The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 27 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Prem Forecasts R27 2020 RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probabbility forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Spotlight on… Oldham Athletic at Leyton Orient

17th face 18th in London on Saturday as Oldham travel to Leyton Orient. 9 wins vs 8, 38 points vs 37. Both teams have conceded 52, Orient have scored six more than Oldham’s rather limp 37.

A draw? The Scorecasting Model would suggest so, with Oldham 38% to win, Orient 37%. 1-1 is of course most likely. The bookmakers seem to price in more of a home advantage, with Orient at 41% to Oldham at 29%.

End of season predictions update, 21 February 2020

Matches just keep on happening in English football, day by day, week by week. Some matches seem pivotal, but are they? One way to think about it is to look at how much they impact the chances of teams achieving things, or avoiding things. So we’re updating our end-of-season predictions on a weekly basis in order to get some sense of that. Derby had a 10% chance of making the play offs, but a couple of games without a win and that has fallen now to just 2.3%.

Some things are obvious. Liverpool are 100% likely to win the Premier League. Most things are less obvious. Man CIty 83% to finish second, Leicester 63% to finish third. Fourth place seems to be up for grabs at the moment, with Tottenham slightly ahead of Chelsea at 22% to 20%. Man United and Sheffield United have an almost identical chance of making it – about 16%.

West Brom have an 80% chance of making a return to the Premier League. In League One, Bolton (98.5% chance) and Southend (99.6%) are as good as relegated. Stevenage look most likely to fall out of the Football League this season (77.7%).

But things can all change so quickly…

Championship, R34 (21-22 Feb, 2020) — Model makes Derby favourites tonight (40% chance of win), contradicting bookies

The table below gives the Model’s forecasts for Round 34 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Champs forecasts, R34, 2020, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.