Scorecasting Economists

RED back in Europe

It’s another weekend of football all across Europe, which has already begun in France and Germany. RED has posted its forecasts. Bundesliga, La Liga, Ligue 1 and Serie A.

Reflecting the lack of balance in the Premier League, Bayern Munich’s visitors Hoffenheim have just a 6.2% chance of winning according to RED, 4.3% according to the bookmakers. In Ligue 1, the bookies give PSG’s visitors Angers just a 6.9% chance, although RED gives them a 27.1% chance.

Championship, R11 (4-6 Oct, 2019) — Reading FC expected to score less than one goal; RED has no loyalties

Reading lie just above the relegation zone. So unsurprisingly the Model makes them underdogs away to Bristol City, with just a 21% chance of a win, and expected to score only 0.93 goals, compared with 1.67 for Bristol. The most likely outcome in this match is 1-0 (10.3%).

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 11 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Champ forecasts, R11 2019, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Premier League, R8 (5-6 Oct) — The uncompetitive state of football: Wolves have 5% chance of a win

The Model gives Wolves just a 5.4% chance of beating Man City away this weekend. The bookies are even more pessimistic about their chances, suggesting only a 4.5% chance that Wolves will overcome the Champions. Such uncompetitive fixtures were rare before the Premier League and the sheikhs arrived. There are lessons throughout sporting history whereby a lack of competitive balance destroyed the popularity of sports. Fans want to see a contest. Anyway… [Good luck to Wolves in making the Model and the Bookies look silly!]

The table below gives the rest of the  Model’s forecasts for Round 8 of the Premier League, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

PL Forecasts R8 2019, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Champions League, Group Stage Game Week 2

RED still can’t quite adjust to the early games. Perhaps Real Madrid are also struggling, too? Though RED only had them at 45.3% to win. How the mighty have slipped.

Either way, here is RED’s output for all tonight’s Champions League matches, including the two early games…

As with last Champions League gameweek, Jean-Louis Foulley has submitted his picks. It was a tough first game week for those trying to predict. Let’s see if we can do better this week…

Championship, R10 (1-2 Oct, 2019) — Stoke better than 50% chance of beating Terriers

The model likes 1-1. In 11 of the 12 matches on Tuesday and Wednesday night the Model predicts 1-1 is the most likely outcome. Only in the bottom-of-the-table clash between Stoke and Huddersfield does the Model see a significant point of difference, with Stoke forecast to beat Huddersfield, with 1.6 goals expected for the home side but less than 1 for the Terriers. In this particular fixture, the Model provides a similar forecast to the average among bookmaker odds, with the former forecasting a 51% chance of a Stoke win and the latter 53%.

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 10 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Championship forecasts R10, 2019, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.

Spotlight on… Oldham

Brunton Park is not a happy hunting ground for Oldham. One win in six visits going back to January 2011, and last year’s 6-0 Boxing Day hammering that saw the end of Frank Bunn’s tenure at Boundary Park. Carlisle are only a point and two positions better off than Oldham, and indeed Oldham retain a higher Elo rating than Carlisle. But RED and the bookmakers are agreed that Carlisle are favourites on Saturday – RED puts their chances of winning at 44%, the bookmakers at 41%. A 1-1 draw is most likely (12.6%), followed by a 1-0 home win (11.5%) and a 1-0 away win (9%).

League One, Round 11, Sept 27-28 – Bolton’s resurgence?

Bolton very nearly caused a significant upset, denied in the closing seconds against Sunderland last weekend. Have they turned the corner? The bookmakers don’t think so, giving them just a 9.5% chance at Portsmouth. RED isn’t much more hopeful, either, giving them just 15% to win. A 2-0 win for Pompey is most likely (11.4%).

Championship, R9 (27-29 Sept, 2019) – Derby County: Model doesn’t forecast captain’s leg being smashed in drink-drive incident.

Drama at Derby. It sounds like something out of “Dream Team” (really miss that show – soap opera and football combined, why did Harchester Utd have to end?) Mass drink-driving offences and the captain’s leg getting smashed don’t feature as variables in the Scorecasting Model. So perhaps Derby’s expected goals forecast this weekend of 1.4 at home to Birmingham is a little ambitious. Nonetheless, the Model and bookmaker implied forecasts of a Derby win are similar, at 45% and 43%, respectively.

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 9 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.

Forecasts EFL Champ R9 2019, RED
  • Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
  • Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
  • Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
  • Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
  • Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.