I am currently looking into different methods of determining the thresholds for warning with the Global Flood Awareness System, and exploring the sensitivity of the warning system to that choice of threshold. I will be comparing methods that produce warnings when thresholds are reached in the model climatology to others that can provide a ‘first guess’ of potential impacts for end-users. For example, I am currently looking at integrating information derived from global scale inundation mapping and population density databases.
I will be attending a meeting of the Global Floods Working Group in early March, and then the European Geophysical Union conference in Vienna at the end of April, where I will hopefully have the opportunity to present some of the results.