Decision-relevant early-warning thresholds for ensemble flood forecasting systems

I am currently looking into different methods of determining the thresholds for warning with the Global Flood Awareness System, and exploring the sensitivity of the warning system to that choice of threshold. I will be comparing methods that produce warnings when thresholds are reached in the model climatology to others that can provide a ‘first guess’ of potential impacts for end-users. For example, I am currently looking at integrating information derived from global scale inundation mapping and population density databases.

I will be attending a meeting of the Global Floods Working Group in early March, and then the European Geophysical Union conference in Vienna at the end of April, where I will hopefully have the opportunity to present some of the results.

Integrating population density datasets with flood maps at the global scale.

‘First guess’ flood warning systems: looking at the potential of integrating flood risk information derived from population density datasets and flood inundation maps at the global scale.

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