Hurricane Earl and Tropical Storm Fiona

Earl is a powerful Category 3 hurricane now located northeast of the Bahamas. As of 9:00 a.m., UTC, Hurricane Earl was located at 24.0°N, 71.2°W, or 175 miles (280km) north of Grand Turk Island and 815 miles (1315km) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina with maximum sustained winds of 125mph (205kph). Earl is moving to the northwest at 16mph (26kph) with a minimum central pressure of 941mb. Computer forecasts continue to show Earl taking a northwesterly track throughout the day on Wednesday. Earl will continue to creep closer to the Eastern Seaboard and from late Thursday into Friday morning near-hurricane conditions will occur at the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Cape Cod and nearby islands will at least experience tropical storm conditions on Friday night into Saturday morning.

Tropical Storm Fiona is following on the heels of Hurricane Earl. As of 9:00 am, UTC, Fiona was centered near 17.4°N, 60.2°W, or about 200 miles (320km) east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds had increased slight to 45mph (75kph), and Fiona was moving west-northwest at 14mph. At this pace, Fiona will be near or over the northern Leeward Islands later today. A general track to the west-northwest should continue over the next 24-36 hours before Fiona makes a turn more toward the northwest and eventually north and northeastward. Fiona is close enough to Earl that Earl’s outflow is restricting Fiona’s further development, as is Fiona’s track over waters churned up by Earl. These factors will likely continue to inhibit Fiona’s development for the next few days. Therefore, Fiona is likely to remain a tropical storm and although it may strengthen slightly, the storm will likely never attain hurricane status. In the longer range, increasing wind shear is expected to affect Fiona by Friday or Saturday. The global forecast models suggest that the shear values will increase significantly, possibly causing Fiona to dissipate by Sunday as it tracks just west of Bermuda.

Finally, a strong tropical wave around 625 miles (100km) to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands along 35°W, south of 15°N, has a chance to become a new depression over the next few days. This wave is tracking west at about 8° of longitude per day. (Source: Accuweather)

2 thoughts on “Hurricane Earl and Tropical Storm Fiona

  1. Over breakfast this morning we discussed similar major hurricanes to make landfall in N. Carolina. From a quick scan of the wikipedia page Earl looks like it shares many characteristics with Hurricane Fran, although the track for Fran was much more inland.

  2. Andrew, if the models are correct Earl will have a track similar to Hurricane Edna, a Category 3 hurricane that moved along the East Coast before striking New England in mid-September 1954, and Hurricane Able, a 1950 hurricane. If it tracks slightly further west it will be more like Hurricane Carol, also a 1954 hurricane and one of the worst to affect New England.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *