Category Archives: Climate modelling

Don’t (always) blame the weather forecaster

By: Ross Bannister There are (I am sure) numerous metaphors that suggest that a small, almost immeasurable event, can have a catastrophic outcome – that adding the proverbial straw to the load of the camel will break its back. In 1972, … Continue reading

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High-resolution insights into future European winters

By: Alexander Baker Figure 1: Observed UK rainfall anomaly as a percentage of 1981-2010 monthly average for (a) December 2013, (b) January 2014, and (c) February 2014. Figure from Huntingford et al. (2014). Most – roughly 70% – of Europe’s winter … Continue reading

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The consequences of climate change: how bad could it get?

By: Nigel Arnell The United Nations Climate Action Summit held in New York on 23rd September was meant to be the occasion where countries and industry organisations made stronger commitments to reduce the emissions of the greenhouse gases that are … Continue reading

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Effect of the North Atlantic Ocean on the Northeast Asian climate: variability and predictability

By: Paul-Arthur Monerie North East Asia has warmed substantially after the mid-1990s leading to an increase in temperature extremes and to societal impacts (Dong et al., 2016). Predicting the variability of the North East Asian climate is therefore of primordial interest … Continue reading

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Why was there decadal increase in summer heat waves over China across the mid-1990s?

By: Buwen Dong Heat waves (HWs), commonly defined as prolonged periods of excessive hot weather, are a distinctive type of high-temperature extreme (Perkins 2015). These high-temperature extremes can lead to severe damage to human society and ecosystems. In our studies, … Continue reading

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How climate modelling can help us better understand the historical temperature evolution

By: Andrea Dittus Figure 1: Annual global mean surface temperatures from NASA GISTemp, NOAA GlobalTemp, Hadley/UEA HadCRUT4, Berkeley Earth, Cowtan and Way, Copernicus/ECMWF and Carbon Brief’s raw temperature record. Anomalies plotted with respect to a 1981-2010 baseline. Figure and caption from Carbon Brief (https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-how-world-warmed-2018). Earth’s climate has warmed … Continue reading

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What sets the pattern of dynamic sea level change in the Southern Ocean?

By: Matthew Couldrey Figure 1a: Multi-model mean projection of dynamic and steric (i.e. due to thermal and/or haline expansion/contraction) sea level rise averaged over 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005 forced with a moderate emissions scenario (RCP4.5), including 0.18 m +/- 0.05 … Continue reading

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Convective self-aggregation: growing storms in a virtual laboratory

By: Chris Holloway Figure 1: An example of convective self-aggregation from an RCE simulation using the Met Office Unified Model at 4km grid length with 300 K SST.  Time mean precipitation in mm/day for (a) Day 2 (still scattered), and … Continue reading

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Modelling Ice Sheets in the global Earth System

By: Robin Smith As Till wrote recently, our national flagship climate model (UKESM1, the UK Earth System Model) has been officially released for the community to use, after more than six years in development by a team drawn from across … Continue reading

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SuPy: An urban land surface model for Pythonista

By: Ting Sun Python is now extensively employed by the atmospheric sciences community for data analyses and numerical modelling thanks to its simplicity and the large scientific Python ecosystem (e.g., PyData community). Although I cherish Mathematica as my native programming … Continue reading

Posted in Boundary layer, Climate, Climate modelling, Urban meteorology | Leave a comment