Category Archives: Predictability

Weather vs. Climate Prediction

By: Annika Reintges Imagine you are planning a birthday party in 2 weeks. You might check the weather forecast for that date to decide whether you can gather outside for a barbeque, or whether you should reserve a table in … Continue reading

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Forecasting Rapid Intensification In Hurricanes And Typhoons.

By: Peter Jan Leeuwen We all know the devastating power of hurricanes, typhoons, and their Southern Hemisphere counterparts. It is crucial that we predict their behaviour accurately to avoid loss of life and to better guide large-scale infrastructure operations. Although … Continue reading

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Co-Producing New Sub-Seasonal Weather Forecasts in Africa

By: Linda Hirons Weather-related extremes affect the lives and livelihoods of millions of people across tropical Africa. Access to reliable, actionable weather information is key to improving the resilience of African populations and economies. Specifically, at the extended sub-seasonal timescale … Continue reading

Posted in Africa, Climate, Co-production, drought, Energy meteorology, Forecasting Testbed, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Predictability, Rainfall, Renewable energy, Seasonal forecasting, subseasonal forecasting, Tropical convection, Weather forecasting | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Do urban heat islands provide thunderstorm predictability?

By: Suzanne Gray  The UK and the rest of western Europe experienced a heatwave in the middle of August 2020 with temperatures exceeding 30oC in Reading. Fortunately for us this was broken by a heavy downpour on the afternoon of … Continue reading

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From Indonesia to the British Isles: using El Niño and weather patterns in the tropics to help predict North Atlantic and European weather

By: Robert Lee The winter weather in the UK and Europe can be split into different patterns based on the large-scale flow in the atmosphere. A commonly used method is to use a type of machine learning algorithm – a … Continue reading

Posted in Climate, ENSO, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Predictability, subseasonal forecasting | Leave a comment

How to analyse your forecast diary properly

By: Jochen Broecker As you are reading a science blog, I am sure you are interested in science, and either as a parent or during your childhood you will have seen these books aimed at children interested in the natural … Continue reading

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Don’t (always) blame the weather forecaster

By: Ross Bannister There are (I am sure) numerous metaphors that suggest that a small, almost immeasurable event, can have a catastrophic outcome – that adding the proverbial straw to the load of the camel will break its back. In 1972, … Continue reading

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Effect of the North Atlantic Ocean on the Northeast Asian climate: variability and predictability

By: Paul-Arthur Monerie North East Asia has warmed substantially after the mid-1990s leading to an increase in temperature extremes and to societal impacts (Dong et al., 2016). Predicting the variability of the North East Asian climate is therefore of primordial interest … Continue reading

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What do we do with weather forecasts?

By: Peter Clark As I sat in the Kia Oval in Kennington having taken a day off to watch the first One Day International between England and Pakistan, I had plenty of time to appreciate the accuracy and utility of … Continue reading

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The North Atlantic Oscillation and the Signal to Noise Paradox

By: Daniel Hodson  The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a key driver of European weather. It is an Atlantic pressure dipole (Figure 1a) and varies over time, with some interesting long-term trends (Figure 1b). The NAO directly affects EU climate … Continue reading

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