Category Archives: Predictability

Do urban heat islands provide thunderstorm predictability?

By: Suzanne Gray  The UK and the rest of western Europe experienced a heatwave in the middle of August 2020 with temperatures exceeding 30oC in Reading. Fortunately for us this was broken by a heavy downpour on the afternoon of … Continue reading

Posted in Climate, Predictability, Thunder Storms, Urban meteorology | Leave a comment

From Indonesia to the British Isles: using El Niño and weather patterns in the tropics to help predict North Atlantic and European weather

By: Robert Lee The winter weather in the UK and Europe can be split into different patterns based on the large-scale flow in the atmosphere. A commonly used method is to use a type of machine learning algorithm – a … Continue reading

Posted in Climate, ENSO, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Predictability, subseasonal forecasting | Leave a comment

How to analyse your forecast diary properly

By: Jochen Broecker As you are reading a science blog, I am sure you are interested in science, and either as a parent or during your childhood you will have seen these books aimed at children interested in the natural … Continue reading

Posted in Predictability, Statistics, Uncategorized, Weather forecasting | Leave a comment

Don’t (always) blame the weather forecaster

By: Ross Bannister There are (I am sure) numerous metaphors that suggest that a small, almost immeasurable event, can have a catastrophic outcome – that adding the proverbial straw to the load of the camel will break its back. In 1972, … Continue reading

Posted in Climate, Climate modelling, data assimilation, Numerical modelling, Predictability | Leave a comment

Effect of the North Atlantic Ocean on the Northeast Asian climate: variability and predictability

By: Paul-Arthur Monerie North East Asia has warmed substantially after the mid-1990s leading to an increase in temperature extremes and to societal impacts (Dong et al., 2016). Predicting the variability of the North East Asian climate is therefore of primordial interest … Continue reading

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What do we do with weather forecasts?

By: Peter Clark As I sat in the Kia Oval in Kennington having taken a day off to watch the first One Day International between England and Pakistan, I had plenty of time to appreciate the accuracy and utility of … Continue reading

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The North Atlantic Oscillation and the Signal to Noise Paradox

By: Daniel Hodson  The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a key driver of European weather. It is an Atlantic pressure dipole (Figure 1a) and varies over time, with some interesting long-term trends (Figure 1b). The NAO directly affects EU climate … Continue reading

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