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Category Archives: Weather forecasting
Finding the skill of forecasts of extreme precipitation in Southeast Asia
By: Samantha Ferrett Forecasting weather in Southeast Asia Southeast (SE) Asia is prone to high‐impact weather and is often subject to flooding and landslides as a result of heavy rainfall. Just last month Indonesia was hit by heavy rainfall that … Continue reading
Predicting the impacts of tropical cyclones – when should we trust the forecasts, and when should we not?
By: Rebecca Emerton Between September 2018 and May 2019, a record-breaking 15 tropical storms moved through the southern Indian Ocean. This marked the first season where two intense tropical cyclones, Idai and Kenneth*, made landfall in Mozambique, causing devastating flooding … Continue reading
Posted in Africa, Tropical cyclones, Weather forecasting
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How can we provide accurate and useful weather forecasts to Tropical African countries?
By: Carlo Cafaro Probabilistic weather forecasts contain useful information that could save lives by issuing early and accurate warnings. This is especially true in Africa, where the livelihoods of people rely significantly on agricultural activities. These, in turn, depend on … Continue reading
Posted in Africa, Climate, Convection, Weather forecasting
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How to analyse your forecast diary properly
By: Jochen Broecker As you are reading a science blog, I am sure you are interested in science, and either as a parent or during your childhood you will have seen these books aimed at children interested in the natural … Continue reading
What do we do with weather forecasts?
By: Peter Clark As I sat in the Kia Oval in Kennington having taken a day off to watch the first One Day International between England and Pakistan, I had plenty of time to appreciate the accuracy and utility of … Continue reading
Posted in Climate, Predictability, Weather, Weather forecasting
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Is it a normal season this year for tropical cyclones in the Western North Pacific?
By Xiangbo Feng The Western North Pacific (WNP) is the most active area for tropical cyclones (TCs). The number of TCs occurred in the WNP so far (end of October) this year is 26 – just the average number of … Continue reading
Smoke, science, and sharks
By Ross Herbert In the August of 2017 the Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation Interactions and Forcing – Year 2017 (CLARIFY) measurement campaign took place on a tiny island in the middle of the southeast Atlantic Ocean where we were surrounded by whales, sharks, … Continue reading
Posted in Africa, Atlantic, Atmospheric chemistry, Atmospheric circulation, Atmospheric optics, Climate, Climate change, Climate modelling, Clouds, Data collection, earth observation, Energy budget, Environmental hazards, Greenhouse gases, Measurements and instrumentation, Microphysics, Numerical modelling, Solar radiation, Weather forecasting, Wind
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Sting jets in winter storms : how do the winds get so strong?
By Ambrogio Volonté Figure 1: Windstorm Tini (12 Feb 2014) passes over the British Isles bringing extreme winds. A sting jet has been identified in the storm. Image courtesy of NASA Earth Observatory The arrival of a winter storm battering … Continue reading
DARE to use datasets of opportunity
By Joanne Waller To accurately forecast the weather, we must first describe what is currently happening in the atmosphere. To determine the current atmospheric state, we could use: Previous forecasts (data from complex computational models of the atmosphere) which provide … Continue reading
Tibetan Plateau Vortices
By Julia Curio Tibetan Plateau Vortices (TPVs) are meso-scale cyclones that originate over the Tibetan Plateau and move eastwards steered by the subtropical westerly jet above. These storms can also move off the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and travel as far … Continue reading