Category Archives: Weather forecasting

Finding the skill of forecasts of extreme precipitation in Southeast Asia

By: Samantha Ferrett Forecasting weather in Southeast Asia Southeast (SE) Asia is prone to high‐impact weather and is often subject to flooding and landslides as a result of heavy rainfall. Just last month Indonesia was hit by heavy rainfall that … Continue reading

Posted in Numerical modelling, Rainfall, Weather forecasting | Leave a comment

Predicting the impacts of tropical cyclones – when should we trust the forecasts, and when should we not?

By: Rebecca Emerton Between September 2018 and May 2019, a record-breaking 15 tropical storms moved through the southern Indian Ocean. This marked the first season where two intense tropical cyclones, Idai and Kenneth*, made landfall in Mozambique, causing devastating flooding … Continue reading

Posted in Africa, Tropical cyclones, Weather forecasting | Leave a comment

How can we provide accurate and useful weather forecasts to Tropical African countries?

By: Carlo Cafaro  Probabilistic weather forecasts contain useful information that could save lives by issuing early and accurate warnings. This is especially true in Africa, where the livelihoods of people rely significantly on agricultural activities. These, in turn, depend on … Continue reading

Posted in Africa, Climate, Convection, Weather forecasting | Leave a comment

How to analyse your forecast diary properly

By: Jochen Broecker As you are reading a science blog, I am sure you are interested in science, and either as a parent or during your childhood you will have seen these books aimed at children interested in the natural … Continue reading

Posted in Predictability, Statistics, Uncategorized, Weather forecasting | Leave a comment

What do we do with weather forecasts?

By: Peter Clark As I sat in the Kia Oval in Kennington having taken a day off to watch the first One Day International between England and Pakistan, I had plenty of time to appreciate the accuracy and utility of … Continue reading

Posted in Climate, Predictability, Weather, Weather forecasting | Leave a comment

Is it a normal season this year for tropical cyclones in the Western North Pacific?

By Xiangbo Feng  The Western North Pacific (WNP) is the most active area for tropical cyclones (TCs).  The number of TCs occurred in the WNP so far (end of October) this year is 26 – just the average number of … Continue reading

Posted in Atmospheric circulation, Climate, Climate modelling, earth observation, ENSO, Equatorial waves, Historical climatology, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Numerical modelling, Seasonal forecasting, Tropical cyclones, Waves, Weather forecasting, Western North Pacific, Wind | Leave a comment

Smoke, science, and sharks

By Ross Herbert In the August of 2017 the Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation Interactions and Forcing – Year 2017 (CLARIFY) measurement campaign took place on a tiny island in the middle of the southeast Atlantic Ocean where we were surrounded by whales, sharks, … Continue reading

Posted in Africa, Atlantic, Atmospheric chemistry, Atmospheric circulation, Atmospheric optics, Climate, Climate change, Climate modelling, Clouds, Data collection, earth observation, Energy budget, Environmental hazards, Greenhouse gases, Measurements and instrumentation, Microphysics, Numerical modelling, Solar radiation, Weather forecasting, Wind | Leave a comment

Sting jets in winter storms : how do the winds get so strong?

By Ambrogio Volonté Figure 1: Windstorm Tini (12 Feb 2014) passes over the British Isles bringing extreme winds. A sting jet has been identified in the storm. Image courtesy of NASA Earth Observatory The arrival of a winter storm battering … Continue reading

Posted in Climate, Climate change, extratropical cyclones, Monsoons, Numerical modelling, sting jet, University of Reading, Weather, Weather forecasting | Leave a comment

DARE to use datasets of opportunity

By Joanne Waller To accurately forecast the weather, we must first describe what is currently happening in the atmosphere. To determine the current atmospheric state, we could use: Previous forecasts (data from complex computational models of the atmosphere) which provide … Continue reading

Posted in data assimilation, earth observation, Flooding, University of Reading, Weather, Weather forecasting | Leave a comment

Tibetan Plateau Vortices

By Julia Curio Tibetan Plateau Vortices (TPVs) are meso-scale cyclones that originate over the Tibetan Plateau and move eastwards steered by the subtropical westerly jet above. These storms can also move off the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and travel as far … Continue reading

Posted in China, earth observation, extratropical cyclones, Flooding, Monsoons, Numerical modelling, University of Reading, Weather forecasting | Leave a comment