There has recently been a surge of interest in a new kind of decision theory, which we can call Hindsight Decision Theory (HDT). Its proponents include Ralph Wedgwood, J. Dmitri Gallow, Abelard Podgorski, and David James Barnett. They argue that HDT avoids problems with both Evidential Decision Theory (EDT) and Causal Decision Theory (CDT). I here argue that the main problem with EDT, known as the Newcomb Problem, also applies, with no less force, to HDT. I then address the main problem with CDT, which is that it seems to generate a counterintuitive kind of decision instability. I argue that decision instability can be avoided by combining CDT with a natural constraint on options.
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University of Reading