Tonight there are National League, and EFL Cup games. Part of experimenting with potential improvements to forecasting, we have expanded the matches over which we estimate, enabling forecasts of these “other” matches.
We present these abbreviated below (NL=National League, EFLC=EFL Cup, and we hope the teams are still clear). We also present some conditional probabilities, namely the probability of the most likely outcome. This is because while 1-1 is the most likely score, a draw isn’t the most likely outcome. Leeds vs Bolton is a great example of this, where the most likely score is 1-1 (11%), but the most likely outcome is a home win, (45%). Hence the conditional forecast is a 2-1 Leeds win, which seems more sensible, and is at 9% rather than 11%.
Note one other thing; H & W is Havant and Waterlooville, new entrants to the National League. This means they are, for the first time, in our dataset and hence our model, and as a result their model-generated probability of winning at Dover is 0. This is, of course, inaccurate; even Oldham have a 12% chance of beating Derby, a team two divisions above them. Still some wrinkles to iron out…

Forc Pr (%) P(H) P(A) C.Forc C.Prob
EFLC M’field Acc’ton 1-1 12 34 37 0-1 9
EFLC P’mth AFCW 1-1 12 42 29 1-0 10
EFLC Yeovil A Villa 0-1 11 11 69 0-1 11
NL H’gate Barnet 2-2 7 43 37 2-1 7
EFLC B’pool Brnsley 1-1 11 34 39 1-2 8
EFLC RDG B’ham 1-1 11 39 34 2-1 9
EFLC Carlisle B’burn 1-2 10 20 57 1-2 10
EFLC Leeds Bolton 1-1 11 45 28 2-1 9
EFLC Macc Brdford 1-1 12 29 42 0-1 10
EFLC Sthend Brntfrd 1-1 10 21 55 1-2 10
NL Estleigh Brmley 1-1 11 38 37 2-1 8
EFLC S’bury Burton 1-1 13 36 33 1-0 10
EFLC N Frst Bury 2-1 10 61 17 2-1 10
EFLC MK Ch’ton 1-1 11 37 36 2-1 8
NL Barrow Ch’field 1-1 11 31 43 1-2 9
EFLC Chelt Colch 1-1 10 40 35 2-1 8
EFLC Oxford Cov 1-1 12 46 26 1-0 10
EFLC Bristl R Crwley 1-1 10 55 20 2-1 10
NL A’shot DagĀ & R 1-1 13 36 36 1-0 10
EFLC Oldham Derby 0-1 10 12 68 0-1 10
EFLC S’thorpe D’caster 1-1 11 44 28 2-1 9
EFLC Crewe F’wood 1-1 11 33 40 1-2 9
EFLC Sw’don FGR 1-1 9 51 25 2-1 9
NL B’hm W G’head 1-0 13 42 28 1-0 13
EFLC Millwal G’ham 2-1 10 57 19 2-1 10
NL Salford Halifax 1-1 13 38 32 1-0 13
NL Br’tree H’pool 1-1 13 37 34 1-0 11
NL Dover H & W 1-0 26 85 0 1-0 26
EFLC Sheff U Hull 1-1 12 29 44 0-1 10
EFLC Exeter Ipswich 1-1 10 24 51 1-2 10
NL M’stone L Ornt 1-1 11 28 47 1-2 9
EFLC P Vale Lincoln 1-1 11 42 32 2-1 9
EFLC W Brm Luton 1-0 12 64 13 1-0 12
EFLC Preston M’camb 2-0 11 73 08 2-0 11
EFLC Camb U Nwpt C 1-1 11 49 24 2-1 10
EFLC Wyc N’hmpn 1-1 12 46 26 1-0 10
EFLC M’bro N Co 2-0 12 80 6 2-0 12
EFLC QPR P’bro 2-1 10 57 20 2-1 10
EFLC Bristl C P’mth 2-1 10 60 17 2-1 10
EFLC Grmsby R’dale 1-1 11 27 47 1-2 09
NL Fylde Solihull 1-1 10 58 19 2-1 10
EFLC N’wich Stv’age 2-0 10 78 07 2-0 10
NL Ebbsfl Sutton 1-1 13 44 28 1-0 13
EFLC Tranm Walsall 1-1 12 39 32 1-0 10
EFLC R’ham Wigan 1-1 0.11 0.35 0.37 1-2 0.08
NL M’head W’ham 1-1 0.13 0.36 0.36 0-1 0.10