The Football League has begun for 2019/2020 with an exciting score draw at Kenilworth Road featuring two teams that have undergone significant changes over the summer, and will continue to evolve as the season begins.
In a similar vein, RED is evolving, too, and experimenting. Last season, RED showed a small amount of what it is capable of, only producing score picks. This season we are presenting not just the conditional picks we produced last season, but in addition, the raw picks and probabilities for each match.
Below we create a table for the opening round of League One fixtures, where we post not just the pick (ML, most likely score), the conditional pick (CML, most likely score given the most likely outcome – home or away win), but a number of other probabilities.
In the pH column we present the probability of the home team winning, pA the away team. Then the final nine columns provide the probabilities of the nine most likely scorelines historically in football matches.
It promises to be a tough afternoon for the trio of relegated sides, not least financially stricken Bolton at Wycombe Wanderers, where the hosts have a 46% of winning. Two promoted sides won’t face each other tomorrow due to Bury’s financial troubles, but had they played Bury may well have achieved a morale boosting win – an 11.5% chance of a 1-0 home win, and overall a 47.4% chance of a home win.
As RED evolves in the coming weeks, please do be patient with some of the presentational deficiencies…
| pH | pA | ML | CML | p2-0 | p2-1 | p1-0 | p0-0 | p1-1 | p2-2 | p0-1 | p1-2 | p0-2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIN | ACC | 45.6 | 28.5 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 11.0 | 7.4 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 4.6 |
| WYC | BOL | 46.0 | 28.0 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 11.3 | 7.7 | 12.4 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 4.6 |
| BLA | BRI | 39.8 | 34.0 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 12.4 | 5.4 | 9.0 | 7.8 | 5.7 |
| PET | FLE | 50.1 | 24.7 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 12.0 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 3.9 |
| DON | GIL | 50.9 | 24.8 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 10.6 | 6.3 | 11.5 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 3.8 |
| BRT | IPS | 50.1 | 24.5 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 12.0 | 7.7 | 12.1 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 3.9 |
| SUN | OXF | 46.4 | 27.9 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 11.0 | 7.3 | 12.2 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 4.5 |
| SHR | POR | 31.6 | 42.4 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 12.3 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 7.4 |
| TRA | ROC | 45.5 | 28.7 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 12.3 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 4.6 |
| WIM | ROT | 46.7 | 27.8 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 10.8 | 7.1 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 4.4 |
| COV | SOU | 52.6 | 23.1 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 11.6 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 3.5 |
| BRY | MK | 47.4 | 26.8 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 7.7 | 12.3 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 4.3 |