Points on the board makes Liverpool favourites for the title according to our Model. But every game is a must-win now, including a tricky trip from Chelsea this weekend. The Model gives Liverpool a 60% chance of victory, and predicts the most likely outcome will be 1-0 (15%).
Title rivals Manchester City also have a potential banana skin to overcome, travelling to Selhurst Park to take on Crystal Palace. The Model gives City similar chances of a win as Liverpool this weekend, 62%. The forecast scoreline outcome is 0-1 (14%).
There is a catch-up fixture from Round 31 on Tuesday night. Cardiff are probably destined for relegation if they lose this one. The Model makes Brighton strong favourites, with a 55% chance of a win, and the most likely outcome is 1-0 (13%).
The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 34 of the Premier League, and one fixture in R31
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| Score | Pr (%) | P(H) | P(A) | ||
| Leicester | Newcastle | 1-0 | 17 | 49 | 25 |
| Brighton | Bournemouth | 2-1 | 9 | 47 | 26 |
| Burnley | Cardiff | 1-0 | 10 | 56 | 20 |
| Fulham | Everton | 0-1 | 11 | 21 | 55 |
| Manchester Utd | West Ham | 1-0 | 12 | 64 | 15 |
| Southampton | Wolves | 1-1 | 13 | 37 | 35 |
| Spurs | Huddersfield | 1-0 | 18 | 74 | 10 |
| Crystal Palace | Manchester City | 0-1 | 14 | 16 | 62 |
| Liverpool | Chelsea | 1-0 | 15 | 60 | 18 |
| Watford | Arsenal | 1-2 | 9 | 35 | 38 |
| Brighton | Cardiff | 1-0 | 13 | 55 | 21 |
- The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
- The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw