Well, it’s come down to the wire. If you’re Doncaster or Peterborough, or Wimbledon, Southend, Plymouth, Walsall or Scunthorpe, or Newport, Exeter, Colchester, Carlisle or Stevenage, or Macclesfield or Notts County.
The League One relegation battle remains sufficiently complex that we needed to run another simulation to consider what is likely to happen today. In the Table below, we see that Walsall (81%) and Scunthorpe (87%) look most likely to go down, followed by Southend (53%) and Plymouth (47%). Wimbledon are outsiders after a big win last weekend, at 33%.
| Team | P(relegation) |
| Plymouth | 47% |
| AFC Wimbledon | 33% |
| Southend | 53% |
| Walsall | 81% |
| Scunthorpe | 87% |
Plymouth’s relatively low probability, despite their sitting in the relegation zone at the start of play, draws from their home advantage in the relegation shoot-out taking place between them and Scunthorpe. RED thinks there’ll be a tight 2-1 win for Plymouth (8%), which provided Southend don’t beat Sunderland (very tough ask – they have just a 22% chance of beating the Wearsiders), will see the South Coast side avoid the drop. Wimbledon would kick themselves should they not avoid the drop given they play basement Bradford, and RED thinks they’ll win 1-0 at Valley Parade (9%).
Results in League One:
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | ||
| Blackpool | Gillingham | 1-0 | 12% | 49% | 25% |
| Bradford | Wimbledon | 0-1 | 9% | 34% | 38% |
| Bristol R | Barnsley | 0-1 | 17% | 24% | 50% |
| Charlton | Rochdale | 1-0 | 13% | 67% | 14% |
| Doncaster | Coventry | 1-0 | 13% | 49% | 25% |
| Luton | Oxford | 1-0 | 12% | 58% | 19% |
| Peterborough | Burton | 1-0 | 10% | 38% | 34% |
| Plymouth | Scunthorpe | 2-1 | 8% | 48% | 26% |
| Portsmouth | Accrington | 1-0 | 10% | 65% | 15% |
| Shrewsbury | Walsall | 1-0 | 12% | 58% | 19% |
| Southend | Sunderland | 0-1 | 10% | 22% | 53% |
| Wycombe | Fleetwood | 0-1 | 10% | 34% | 39% |
In League Two, Notts County’s task looks forlorn at the bottom. In order to stand a chance, they need Macclesfield to lose at home to Cambridge – a 25% chance. They still need to win at Swindon for that to matter, though – a 20% chance. As such, there is only a 5% chance that Notts County’s long Football League membership (since 1888) will survive at 5pm today.
Results in League Two:
| Forecast | Win (%) | ||||
| Score | PR(%) | P(H) | P(A) | ||
| Bury | Port Vale | 1-0 | 15% | 62% | 17% |
| Crawley | Tranmere | 0-1 | 13% | 27% | 47% |
| Forest Green | Exeter | 1-0 | 11% | 47% | 26% |
| Grimsby | Crewe | 0-1 | 10% | 32% | 40% |
| Lincoln | Colchester | 1-0 | 16% | 56% | 20% |
| Macclesfield | Cambridge U | 1-0 | 11% | 50% | 25% |
| MK Dons | Mansfield | 1-0 | 13% | 38% | 35% |
| Morecambe | Newport Co | 0-1 | 10% | 34% | 39% |
| Oldham | Northampton | 1-0 | 11% | 50% | 24% |
| Stevenage | Cheltenham | 1-0 | 10% | 45% | 28% |
| Swindon | Notts Co | 1-0 | 15% | 56% | 20% |
| Yeovil | Carlisle | 0-1 | 12% | 28% | 45% |