The Premier League and Championship have entered the first international break of the season, with something in the region of 79 international matches taking place between now and next Wednesday. We’ll continue with our lower league forecasts, since these divisions carry on in earnest, but we decided to experiment again by looking at international matches, and providing scoreline forecasts for these.
We stripped out some variables (form, still in the FA Cup, etc), and our international model simply factors in attacking and defensive strengths, along with the more general Elo strength of each team when making a forecast. We have some seasonal effects for different times of the year, too.
International matches are quite different to domestic ones, as is well known. Fewer goals are scored – 2 in international matches and 3 in domestic games, on average (using the median); games are cagier. This may well aid us, since our forecasts do tend to be on the low scoring side.
In the following tables, we list forecasts grouping them by dates. So the first set of forecasts is for the 5th and 6th of September. There are things we won’t be able to factor in, like Denmark fielding futsal players, and lower league players due to a labour dispute. However, hopefully we won’t be too far off the mark elsewhere – Germany to beat World Champs France, Wales to beat Ireland, European Champs Portugal to beat World Cup Finalists Croatia.
Most likely | Win (%) | ||||
5th-6th September 2018 | Score | Pr (%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
Slovakia | Denmark | 0-0 | 14% | 34% | 34% |
Armenia | Liechtenstein | 2-0 | 16% | 88% | 3% |
Austria | Sweden | 0-1 | 15% | 27% | 44% |
Czech Rep | Ukraine | 0-1 | 16% | 28% | 40% |
Germany | France | 1-0 | 12% | 58% | 19% |
Gibraltar | Macedonia | 0-2 | 18% | 4% | 83% |
Holland | Peru | 1-0 | 13% | 60% | 17% |
Kazakhstan | Georgia | 1-1 | 13% | 37% | 34% |
Latvia | Andorra | 1-0 | 23% | 80% | 3% |
Norway | Cyprus | 1-0 | 19% | 58% | 15% |
Portugal | Croatia | 1-0 | 16% | 53% | 20% |
Slovenia | Bulgaria | 1-0 | 18% | 46% | 23% |
Wales | Ireland | 1-0 | 17% | 39% | 28% |
On Friday, World Cup Bronze medalists Belgium to win in Scotland, Chile to edge World Cup surprise package Japan, Turkey to beat Russia, and in one of the most imbalanced matches of the international break where Guatemala have just a 1% chance of beating Argentina.
Most likely | Win (%) | ||||
7th September 2018 | Score | Pr (%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
Albania | Israel | 1-0 | 16% | 50% | 22% |
Argentina | Guatemala | 4-0 | 10% | 90% | 1% |
Azerbaijan | Kosovo | 1-0 | 11% | 38% | 35% |
Faroe Islands | Malta | 1-0 | 22% | 45% | 19% |
Italy | Poland | 1-0 | 11% | 49% | 26% |
Japan | Chile | 1-2 | 8% | 39% | 39% |
Lithuania | Serbia | 0-1 | 17% | 10% | 70% |
Qatar | China | 2-0 | 12% | 68% | 13% |
Romania | Montenegro | 1-0 | 15% | 57% | 18% |
Scotland | Belgium | 0-1 | 10% | 32% | 42% |
South Korea | Costa Rica | 0-1 | 10% | 35% | 38% |
Turkey | Russia | 2-1 | 10% | 54% | 23% |
Venezuela | Colombia | 0-1 | 16% | 17% | 58% |
On Saturday, England face Spain in the first apparently confusing Nations League match for both nations. Spain are naturally the more likely to win, despite their disappointing showing at the World Cup, with a 36% probability of winning to England’s 33%, but these probabilities reflect a tight match, and so the conditionally most likely score is a 1-1 draw. Three matches to miss look like Luxembourg vs Moldova, Mexico vs Uruguay and Northern Ireland vs Bosnia, all of which look likely to be short on goals. Belarus are 95% likely to beat San Marino, who themselves have less than 1% chance of winning. A 3-0 scoreline is most likely, with a probability of 18%.
Most likely | Win (%) | ||||
8th September 2018 | Score | Pr (%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
Belarus | San Marino | 3-0 | 18% | 95% | 0% |
Ecuador | Jamaica | 3-0 | 11% | 89% | 3% |
England | Spain | 1-1 | 14% | 33% | 36% |
Estonia | Greece | 0-1 | 19% | 24% | 43% |
Finland | Hungary | 1-1 | 14% | 34% | 35% |
Luxembourg | Moldova | 0-0 | 24% | 34% | 28% |
Mexico | Uruguay | 0-0 | 18% | 38% | 28% |
N Ireland | Bosnia-Hz. | 0-0 | 24% | 27% | 36% |
Switzerland | Iceland | 1-0 | 14% | 61% | 16% |
USA | Brazil | 0-1 | 19% | 11% | 65% |
On Sunday, Denmark (40%) would ordinarily be likely to beat Wales (24%), with 1-0 being the most likely score (20%), but as already mentioned, they are not fielding players from their top two divisions in their match. World Cup winners France are expected to beat the Netherlands 1-0 (11%), and Germany are expected to beat Peru 2-0 (14%).
Most likely | Win (%) | ||||
9th September 2018 | Score | Pr (%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
Bulgaria | Norway | 1-0 | 12% | 49% | 25% |
Cyprus | Slovenia | 0-1 | 21% | 21% | 42% |
Denmark | Wales | 1-0 | 20% | 40% | 24% |
France | Holland | 1-0 | 11% | 53% | 23% |
Georgia | Latvia | 1-0 | 12% | 57% | 19% |
Germany | Peru | 2-0 | 14% | 72% | 10% |
Liechtenstein | Gibraltar | 1-0 | 20% | 42% | 23% |
Macedonia | Armenia | 1-0 | 12% | 54% | 21% |
Ukraine | Slovakia | 1-0 | 17% | 58% | 16% |
A devilish match on Monday between Andorra and Kazakhstan has Andorra at 6% to win, and the Kazakhs at 66%. A single goal win for the Kasakhs is most likely (28%). New Fifa nation Kosovo are highly likely (62%) to edge perennial whipping boys Faroe Islands 1-0 (17%). Portugal look likely to edge Italy 1-0 in their Nations League match-up, and we expect Scotland to beat Albania, also by the only goal of the game.
Most likely | Win (%) | ||||
10th September 2018 | Score | Pr (%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
Andorra | Kazakhstan | 0-1 | 28% | 6% | 66% |
Kosovo | Faroe Islands | 1-0 | 17% | 62% | 14% |
Malta | Azerbaijan | 0-1 | 19% | 23% | 44% |
Montenegro | Lithuania | 2-0 | 17% | 76% | 7% |
Portugal | Italy | 1-0 | 15% | 50% | 23% |
Russia | Czech Rep | 1-0 | 10% | 57% | 21% |
Saudi Arabia | Bolivia | 1-0 | 12% | 56% | 20% |
Scotland | Albania | 1-0 | 14% | 59% | 18% |
Serbia | Romania | 1-0 | 14% | 43% | 28% |
Sweden | Turkey | 1-0 | 15% | 49% | 23% |
On Tuesday, Bosnia are expected to beat Austria, England to beat Switzerland, Northern Ireland to beat Israel, and Poland to beat Ireland, all 1-0. The other two teams in England’s Nations League group, Spain and Croatia, meet. Despite making the World Cup Final, Croatia remain a significantly weaker proposition than Spain, and have only a 10% of chance of winning on the Iberian peninsula. Spain are at 71%, and the 1-0 win is 15% likely to happen.
Most likely | Win (%) | ||||
11th September 2018 | Score | Pr (%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
Bosnia-Hz. | Austria | 1-0 | 16% | 58% | 17% |
England | Switzerland | 1-0 | 20% | 58% | 14% |
Finland | Estonia | 1-0 | 21% | 50% | 18% |
Hungary | Greece | 1-0 | 15% | 43% | 27% |
Iceland | Belgium | 1-2 | 10% | 26% | 51% |
Japan | Costa Rica | 2-1 | 10% | 51% | 26% |
Kenya | Malawi | 1-0 | 28% | 50% | 11% |
Kuwait | Bolivia | 0-1 | 17% | 21% | 51% |
Moldova | Belarus | 0-1 | 23% | 18% | 47% |
N Ireland | Israel | 1-0 | 23% | 44% | 18% |
Panama | Venezuela | 1-0 | 14% | 42% | 29% |
Poland | Ireland | 1-0 | 13% | 50% | 24% |
Qatar | Palestine | 1-0 | 15% | 67% | 12% |
San Marino | Luxembourg | 0-1 | 20% | 6% | 75% |
South Korea | Chile | 1-2 | 10% | 25% | 52% |
Spain | Croatia | 1-0 | 15% | 71% | 10% |
Uzbekistan | Iran | 0-0 | 32% | 20% | 37% |
The international break draws to a close with a number of games on Wednesday 12th, mainly involving South American teams. El Salvador have essentially no chance of winning in Brazil, with a 4-0 scoreline the most likely at 16%, and Guatemala are similarly expected to lose 4-0 in Ecuador, and have only a 2% chance of springing a surprise. Colombia and Argentina both look to put behind them World Cup Last 16 exists as they play each other. Colombia are the more likely to prevail (45% to 28%), and 1-0 is 12% likely.
Most likely | Win (%) | ||||
12th September 2018 | Score | Pr (%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
Brazil | El Salvador | 4-0 | 16% | 93% | 0% |
Colombia | Argentina | 1-0 | 12% | 45% | 28% |
Ecuador | Guatemala | 4-0 | 9% | 89% | 2% |
Panama | Venezuela | 1-0 | 14% | 42% | 29% |
USA | Mexico | 0-0 | 15% | 33% | 35% |
4 thoughts on “The International Break”