We’ve realised that, unlike Sajid Javid, adhering to common standards can be helpful. We produce, for example, forecasts alongside Jean-Louis Foulley, and we found ourselves disagreeing on the codes, or…Read More >
Category: Methods
Mid-term evaluation – Champions League – must do better!
It’s about the halfway stage of the season, so we’re going to spend a little bit of time evaluating how good our forecasts are over the next few days. We’re…Read More >
Half-term Reports
We can always consult the league tables to find out where teams are – but are they where we expected them to be? It’s hard to avoid the idea that…Read More >
The scourge of the goalless draw
It’s the classic trope wheeled out by those who don’t like football – goalless draws, boring! Even those of us who live and breathe football have to confess we’d rather…Read More >
Going with your gut: best practice in football score tips (judgemental forecasts)
The development of the Scorecasting Model is only a small part of a wider research project we are undertaking. As part of this project, we have been working with user…Read More >
Lower Leagues, R4 (21-22 August)
Midweek is a busy week in the Football League, with a full set of fixtures in Leagues One and Two. We continue to refine our conditional forecasts, also. There’s a…Read More >
Championship, R3 (17-19 August, 2018)
Our forecasts for Round 3 of the Championship are in the Table below. But first, a quick word on how and why we are expanding our range of forecasts: Over…Read More >
Evaluation and Scoring Rules
A bunch of “other” matches took place last night, which we forecast. We also presented conditional probabilities, perhaps a bit more intuitive because while 1-1 is the most likely result,…Read More >
One-alls, and conditional probabilities
A few patterns are emerging, after a couple of weeks of forecasting. One is that it’s harder work predicting scores outside the Premier League, but the other is that as…Read More >
Forecasts of Other Matches (August 14)
Tonight there are National League, and EFL Cup games. Part of experimenting with potential improvements to forecasting, we have expanded the matches over which we estimate, enabling forecasts of these…Read More >