The English Football League season opens with a trip to Reading for rookie manager Frank Lampard’s Derby. The home side are forecast to have another season looking over their shoulder at the drop zone (24% chance of relegation), whereas Derby fans should be hoping for at least the playoffs again (68%). Despite finishing last season on a poor run of form, Derby are still favorites to take the spoils on Friday night, with a most likely scoreline of 0-1 (13%).
Another standout fixture is Leeds taking on Stoke, following the latter’s relegation from the Premier League. Both teams have new managers, and the model predicts the most likely outcome is that Stoke will win by the odd goal (0-1; 15%).
Among the neutrals, Football purists only are advised to visit The Den on Saturday, as there is a relatively high chance of not seeing any goals (0-0; 23%).
| Forecast | Prob. (%) | ||
| Friday, 3 August 2018 | |||
| Reading | 0 – 1 | Derby County | 13 |
| Saturday, 4 August 2018 | |||
| Bristol City | 1 – 0 | Nottingham Forest | 12 |
| Millwall | 0 – 0 | Middlesbrough | 23 |
| Birmingham City | 1 – 1 | Norwich City | 12 |
| Wigan Athletic | 1 – 1 | Sheffield Wednesday | 12 |
| West Bromwich Albion | 2 – 0 | Bolton Wanderers | 18 |
| Brentford | 2 – 0 | Rotherham United | 14 |
| Ipswich Town | 1 – 0 | Blackburn Rovers | 14 |
| Preston North End | 1 – 0 | Queens Park Rangers | 15 |
| Sheffield United | 1 – 1 | Swansea City | 12 |
| Sunday, 5 August 2018 | |||
| Leeds United | 0 – 1 | Stoke City | 15 |
| Monday, 6 August 2018 | |||
| Hull City | 1 – 2 | Aston Villa | 7 |