The season is well and truly underway now, with clear distance starting to emerge between the ends of the tables. Next week we’ll be updating our end-of-season forecasts which generated plenty of interest back at the start of the season. In the meantime, while the International Break continues, and the FA Women’s Super League begins, Leagues One and Two each move into their seventh round of games.
In League One it looks like a week for home teams, with 11 home wins and a single away win predicted. Those defeats on the road include first defeats for free-scoring-until-last-week Peterborough (2-1 at Southend with 9%, defeat at 46%), and Walsall at fellow-unbeaten-side Barnsley (2-0 with 12%, defeat 67% likely).
| Most likely | Win (%) | ||||
| League One | Score | Pr (%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Gillingham | AFC W’don | 1-0 | 13% | 40% | 31% |
| Blackpool | Bradford | 1-0 | 13% | 43% | 29% |
| Accrington | Burton | 0-1 | 13% | 32% | 39% |
| Sunderland | Fleetwood | 2-1 | 10% | 59% | 20% |
| Doncaster | Luton | 1-0 | 11% | 42% | 31% |
| Southend | Peterboro | 2-1 | 9% | 46% | 30% |
| Bristol R | Plymouth | 1-0 | 10% | 45% | 30% |
| Scunthorpe | Rochdale | 1-0 | 11% | 52% | 24% |
| Portsmouth | Shrewsbury | 1-0 | 16% | 47% | 24% |
| Barnsley | Walsall | 2-0 | 12% | 67% | 13% |
| Charlton | Wycombe | 1-0 | 14% | 53% | 21% |
| Oxford | Coventry | 1-0 | 13% | 57% | 19% |
Into League Two, Oldham and Newport County meet for the first time in nearly fifty years in what is a top six battle in the fledgling League Two table. A 1-0 scoreline for Oldham, with probably 14%, seems reasonable as all of Newport’s dropped points have been on the road this season, and neither team is particularly high scoring or porous in defence. Leaders Lincoln are expected to continue their fine start with a 1-0 home win (13%) over struggling Crawley. Notts County, who stole Crawley’s manager, are not expected to reap any rewards from that just yet, with a 1-0 defeat at Exeter 11% likely.
| Most likely | Win (%) | ||||
| League Two | Score | Pr (%) | P(H) | P(A) | |
| Bury | Grimsby | 1-0 | 14% | 52% | 22% |
| Cambridge | Carlisle | 1-0 | 11% | 41% | 32% |
| Crewe | Mansfield | 0-1 | 11% | 32% | 42% |
| Exeter | Notts Co | 1-0 | 11% | 53% | 23% |
| Forest Green | Port Vale | 1-0 | 9% | 42% | 33% |
| Lincoln | Crawley | 1-0 | 13% | 53% | 22% |
| Morecambe | Swindon | 0-1 | 13% | 30% | 42% |
| North’ton | Cheltenham | 2-1 | 10% | 53% | 24% |
| Oldham | Newport Co | 1-0 | 14% | 50% | 23% |
| Stevenage | Macclesfield | 1-0 | 14% | 53% | 21% |
| Tranmere | Colchester | 1-0 | 12% | 39% | 32% |
| Yeovil | MK Dons | 0-1 | 12% | 28% | 45% |
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