Nine days ago we published our end of season league table forecasts. At that time, the Model was forecasting Man City to have an 84% chance of lifting the Premier League trophy, with Liverpool 16% and Spurs at just 0.2%. Things have changed a lot since then. In our model simulations after Boxing Day, Man City now have an 11% chance of retaining their title, Liverpool a 48% chance of snatching it away, with Spurs at 33%.
Man City travel to Southampton for their last game in 2018. Despite now being more sceptical about their title chances, the Model still gives them a 54% chance of victory on the South coast, and the most likely scoreline is 0-2 (15%).
Burnley used to be rock solid defensively. Now they are shipping goals in for fun, and have slipped into the relegation zone. The ease at which teams are scoring against them is not a good sign. They face West Ham this weekend, and the Model predicts another defeat for Burnley, with a scoreline of 1-2.
The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 20 of the Premier League:
- The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
- The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw