Derby County travel to Craven Cottage this evening, having picked up a vital win at the weekend over Preston. Fulham are just 5 points ahead of the Rams in the table, and both sides have won 3 of their last 5 games. The Model however gives Derby just 26% chance of returning from London with a win. Though this is better than the bookmakers, whose odds imply Derby have just an 18% chance of a win. Fulham are expected to score 1.5 goals to Derby’s 1.0, and the most likely outcome is 1-1 (12.4%), shortly followed by 1-0 (12.0%).
Our local side Reading host Leeds tonight. Going by form, Leeds should be big favourites. The bookmakers have it this way, with their odds suggesting Leeds have a 52% chance of a win. But the forecasting Model has this game much closer, giving Leeds a 40% chance and Reading 33% chance of victory. Reading are expected to score 1.2 goals to Leeds’ 1.4.
The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 18 of the English Championship, along with forecast probabilities estimated from current online bookmaker odds.
- Expected Goals: the forecast average number of goals the Model expects for Home and Away teams
- Outcome Probs: the model predicted % chance of either a Home or Away win, with 100 minus these two numbers being the % chance of a draw.
- Score Picks: the Most likely forecast scoreline outcome, as well as the most likely conditional on the most likely result outcome happening.
- Home wins / Draws / Away wins: the predicted % chance of various potential scoreline outcomes of the match.
- Mean odds: Estimates of online bookmakers’ average probability forecasts for the Home and Away teams to win, which could be compared with Outcome Probs.