Championship – Midweek 8 and 9 December 2020

Norwich v Nottingham Forest

Looks like Norwich are likely to continue leading the league. We have them at a 57.7% chance of winning, with bookmakers at 54.5%. We have 1-0 as the most likely result (1-0 for Norwich is at 13.7% as the likely actual score)

Swansea v Bournemouth

This match sees 4th placed Swansea, who have the meanest defence in the league with just 10 goals conceded, against the 2nd placed Bournemouth who are the second highest scorers currently. Our model has predicted a draw. Bookmakers slightly favour Bournemouth whilst we favour Swansea.

Reading v Birmingham City 

3rd placed Reading play Birmingham City tomorrow night. We have Reading winning 1-0 as the most likely score (12.5% chance of a 1-0 win) and we have a 51.3 % chance of Reading winning overall. Bookmakers largely agree with us too (a 6% difference but they still favour Reading at 45.3%). This certainly balances things out from earlier in the season where we were predicting Reading defeats or draws and Reading were continuing to win. Historically the two teams have been evenly matched with 14 Reading  wins, 12 draws and 15 Birmingham wins (see link below from If as predicted Bournemouth draw with Swansea then Reading will move up to 2nd.

Watford v Rotherham

This match shows the largest difference, in terms of chances to win, between two teams during the midweek matches. Watford have 2 for expected goals, whereas Rotherham have less than 1. We have a 64.8% chance of a Watford win with bookmakers having this at 60.5%