Premier League 12 Jan – 14 Jan 2021

Football carries on rightly or wrongly tonight and this mid-week selection of matches feels somewhat odd, with some top teams missing (Liverpool and Chelsea for instance).

Fulham are upset that their match against Tottenham has been re-arranged to essentially replace the Aston Villa v Tottenham game

Who can blame them? It’s also thrown our model out slightly which still show the Villa match below.

In terms of the football itself, Man City are looking likely for a big win against Brighton – the scorecast has this at 2-0 as the most likely score but both our model and bookmakers have City as overwhelming favourites (over 80% chance of a win from both our model and bookmakers). City on just below 3 expected goals.

Arsenal are also predicted to win 2-0 against Crystal Palace. Arsenal fans will probably suggest this is likely to curse them but they have managed to win their last 3 games so this is a pretty reasonable prediction! They are also on more than 2 for expected goals which hasn’t happened for a while, I think.

Some of the fixtures showing below are either not on, or not scheduled and this is just due to how we collected the data at the beginning of the season. Liverpool v Burnley is not a game happening this week but Burnley are currently playing Man Utd as I type this.

It’s also meant that I was still typing this blog whilst Sheffield Utd had kicked off against Newcastle (it’s predicted as 1-1, with our model slightly favouring Sheffield a bit more than bookmakers do).

***update (later in the evening on 12 Jan!)*** The image below now includes Tottenham v Fulham and Tottenham are predicted to win 2-0 with Fulham having just a 12% chance for a win with bookmakers and 8.7% with our model.